Demand side: in January, new RMB loans reached a new high in a single month, the enterprise sector increased by 810 billion yuan year-on-year, and the new credit of residents was negative year-on-year for two consecutive months
In January 2022, 100.6 billion yuan of short-term loans for residents were added, with a year-on-year increase of – 69.3% (December 21 – 86.3%), and a month on month increase of + 540.8% (December 21 – 89.7%). In January 2022, 742.4 billion yuan of medium and long-term loans were added to residents, with a year-on-year increase of – 21.4% (December 21 – 19.0%), which was negative year-on-year for two consecutive months, with a month on month increase of + 108.7%.
On February 10, 2022, according to the financial Associated Press, the national measures for the supervision and management of commercial housing pre-sale funds have been formulated and promulgated recently. The Management Measures specify that the pre-sale capital quota supervision is “key quota supervision”. The introduction of the new measures has enhanced the flexibility of the use of commercial housing pre-sale funds. In this regard, the previous practice of too strict supervision of pre-sale funds in some places has also played a corrective role, which is conducive to improving the industry fundamentals and boosting investor confidence, and the liquidity tension of real estate enterprises will be alleviated to a certain extent.
Supply side: in January, the scale of domestic bond issuance decreased, and the primary market of overseas bonds showed signs of recovery
In January 2022, domestic and foreign real estate enterprises issued 46.9 billion yuan of bonds in a single month, with a month on month increase of + 2.9% (December 21 – 6.5%), a year-on-year increase of – 71.3% (December 21 – 39.0%), and a monthly net financing of – 41.8 billion yuan (December 21 – 28.3 billion yuan); The amount of domestic bonds issued decreased from December 21, with a month on month ratio of – 24.9% to RMB 32.5 billion, and a monthly net financing of – 18.1 billion. In January, the issuance of overseas bonds in the primary market showed signs of recovery. The monthly issuance of overseas foreign debt of real estate enterprises was 14.4 billion yuan, an increase of 525.4% (December 21 – 61.2%), a year-on-year decrease of 82.5% (December 21 – 84.8%), and the monthly net financing amount was about – 23.7 billion yuan (December 21 – 12.7 billion yuan). In January 2022, the establishment amount of real estate collective trust was about 6.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.4%, accounting for 7.3% of the establishment scale of collective trust in a single month, a decrease from December 21. Since the beginning of this year, financial institutions have successively implemented the financing support for mergers and acquisitions in the real estate industry, and encouraged large high-quality real estate enterprises to increase the mergers and acquisitions of real estate projects of enterprises in danger in accordance with the principle of marketization. The domestic financing environment of real estate enterprises continued to improve. The bond issuance interest rate of high-quality real estate enterprises in January was lower than that in the early stage. However, due to factors such as the lack of comprehensive repair of market confidence, the domestic financing of real estate enterprises still showed a weak trend in January; The overseas financing environment improved slightly, and the issuance of Chinese dollar real estate bonds rebounded in mid and late January, ushering in a slight rebound.
Investment suggestion: on September 24, 2021, the central bank set the tone of “two maintenance”, and dispelled doubts on October 15“ α “Risk” exposure and“ β Coefficient “healthy and stable; On December 20, the central bank clearly supported high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of large-scale real estate enterprises in danger and difficulties, and the real estate enterprises such as Evergrande“ α The “risk” repair enters the implementation stage. Since the fourth quarter of 2021, the liquidity of the real estate industry has continued to repair, and development loans and mortgage loans have continued to pick up; The central bank fully released the “long-term interest rate” of RMB 1.5 trillion for private enterprises, making it more stable for private enterprises; The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market, and the central economic work conference reiterated that “real estate is not fried” and then proposed “policies for the city”; National opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been issued, and structural correction has promoted steady growth; We believe that the restrictions on house purchase in some regions will be gradually withdrawn, accelerate the citizenization of agricultural transfer population, and support residents’ reasonable house purchase demand.
At the beginning of 2022, the real estate sector ushered in a “good start”, with excellent performance of high-quality leading real estate enterprises; As of the closing on February 11, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) rose 10.77%, Vanke enterprises rose 19.98%, China overseas development rose 34.62%, and China Jinmao rose 32.22%; We believe that with the interest rate cut in the first quarter of 2022, the credit supply of residents’ improved housing mortgage loans is expected to be further supported, and the attention and confidence of the capital market in high-quality leading real estate enterprises will be further improved. Highlight China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) / Vanke enterprise, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Jinmao, China overseas development, China Resources Land, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; It is suggested to pay attention to Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Longhu group and Yuexiu real estate.
Risk analysis: covid-19 epidemic, economic restructuring and Sino US trade friction may lead to the development and employment of some industries in China falling short of expectations, which will affect residents’ income and credit expansion; The “three red lines” of real estate enterprises superimpose the centralized debt repayment period, and the risk of credit default of some real estate enterprises increases.
