Zhou viewpoint (refers to February 7 to February 13, 2022, the same below)
Multiple policies benefit the cultural and tourism market: on January 20, the State Council issued a notice on the tourism development plan in the 14th five year plan. We believe that: first, the follow-up entry epidemic prevention policy will no longer be “one size fits all”, and the scientific formulation of visa policy will promote the gradual recovery of inbound tourism; Second, since 2021h2, many countries have released the signal of border control liberalization, superimposed this policy support, and the travel demand may be released steadily; Tourism enterprises should actively promote the supply side reform of culture and tourism and stimulate Chinese consumption. According to the British Federation of industry, the direct flight resumption test between China and the UK may be launched in mid and late February. We believe that if this attempt is successful, China is expected to open more pilot projects under the stable conditions of epidemic prevention and control, gradually liberalize the strict epidemic prevention policy, and successively restore various windows such as aviation, railway and waterway until the country is finally opened.
Covid-19 specific drugs gradually, or play an important role in the change of China’s existing epidemic prevention and control policies. On February 11, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the import registration of Pfizer covid-19 small molecule oral specific drug paxlovid with conditions. Pfizer previously announced that it could reduce hospitalization or mortality of patients with covid-19 pneumonia by 89%. Covid-19 oral drug vv116, jointly developed by Shanghai Pharmaceutical Institute and other Chinese institutions, has been authorized for emergency use in Uzbekistan. The drug is expected to submit an application for listing in China in the second half of 2022. At present, more than 85% of the patients infected with covid-19 virus are mild and moderate. The treatment with small molecule oral drugs at home has the characteristics of rapid elimination of the virus, minimizing the risk of infection and shortening the isolation time, which may play an important role in the change of China’s existing epidemic prevention and control strategy.
The recovery is expected to embrace Pro cyclical and service consumption growth. We believe that the epidemic situation will continue to be stable and good in the future, with sufficient space for the bottom to rise. Looking forward to 2022, with the steady epidemic prevention and control and the continuous improvement of the industry boom, we are optimistic about the marginal improvement brought by the medium-term recovery and the high-quality service consumption sector with great upward flexibility, such as catering, hotels, scenic spots, Ota, outbound tourism, etc.
1) catering: the chain wave is still surging, and the willows are waiting for the flowers. Looking forward to the future, the repeated epidemic situation is still the biggest uncertainty in the industry. In 2020, the chain rate of catering in China was only 17.4%, and the average chain rate in developed countries reached 47.2%. In the long run, the trend of industry branding chain is still accelerating, and the leaders continue to benefit. With the steady epidemic prevention and control, we are optimistic about the upward flexibility of the performance in the era of epidemic after the catering leader. We recommend jiumaojiu and Haidilao, Helens and Naixue tea. It is suggested to pay attention to Yum china-s. The catering supply chain and catering performance are highly related. We are optimistic about the catering supply chain opportunities under the general trend of catering industrialization. We recommend Yihai Kerry Arawana Holdings Co.Ltd(300999) , nongnongshan spring and Yihai international.
2) Hotels: the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and the layout of leading enterprises is accelerated to recover in a cycle. According to yingdie consulting, single hotels or small and medium-sized hotels with weak profitability will be shut down in 2020 under the impact of the epidemic. With the advantages of scale, brand, member resources and capital, Jinjiang, Huazhu and ShouLv, the leaders of chain hotels, expanded against the trend during the epidemic period. In 2020, the market share of Jinjiang, Huazhu and BTS in terms of hotel rooms reached 20.2% / 13.9% / 9.2%, with a total of 43.3%. With the economic growth and consumption upgrading, the proportion of medium and high-end hotels has increased year by year, becoming the main force of the industry development. The epidemic accelerated industry integration and chain rate. With the smooth progress of the vaccine, the superposition of Pro cyclical economic recovery and the recovery of business travel demand, the recovery of hotel performance after the epidemic is expected. It is recommended to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) . It is recommended to pay attention to Huazhu group-s.
3) Cultural Tourism: the demand has gradually warmed up. The cultural tourism planning of the 14th five year plan is good, and we look forward to the improvement of prosperity after the epidemic. The 14th five year plan for cultural tourism emphasizes promoting the coordinated development of outbound tourism, Chinese tourism and inbound tourism. Looking forward to 2022, the recurrence of the epidemic may affect the recovery process of cultural tourism for a long time. With the continuous rise of China’s vaccine coverage, the performance elasticity of high-quality targets is sufficient and has layout value. Under the background of stable epidemic prevention and control forms and policy support, it is recommended to focus on Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , the leading performing arts with rising volume and price for a long time, the scarce private leisure scenic spots, and Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) benefiting from the booming demand for peripheral tourism to open up the space for stock growth; Recommend China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) with high-quality products and short-term passenger flow pressure. Pay attention to Emei culture, Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) , Minmetals Development Co.Ltd(600058) , Zhejiang Guyuelongshan Shaoxing Wine Co.Ltd(600059) , Minmetals Development Co.Ltd(600058) . OTA & outbound tourism business is expected to recover, and overseas cultural tourism is expected to continue to benefit. It is recommended to pay attention to the same way travel, Ctrip group-s, Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) , Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) , Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) .
Risk tips: risks such as the continuous spread of the epidemic, macroeconomic fluctuations and policy changes; Risk of fierce competition in the industry; The progress of business transformation, market development and capacity improvement is lower than the market expected risk.
