Key investment points
Power coal industry chain: this week (2.7-2.11), the port price of power coal is running at a high level, the overseas coal price is generally rising, and the coal price of origin is reduced. The annual price center decreased by a certain margin compared with last year, but the decline continued to converge. During the Spring Festival, the inventory was higher than that in previous years, but continued to go.
Metallurgical coal industry chain: the price of metallurgical coal was stable this week. The main coking coal at the port was flat, the price of imported coking coal decreased, and the import price difference expanded. The price of injected coal is the same as that before the festival. On the demand side, during the Spring Festival, superimposed with the factors of the Winter Olympics, the demand side became weaker seasonally, the coke price decreased, and the coke oven operating rate decreased seasonally. Steel prices maintained a certain increase this week, and the operating rate of blast furnace fell. The inventory of coking coal, injection coal and coke in all links remained high, but it was de converted in the week.
Equity view: the sector rose sharply this week, ranking first in the whole industry, and the metallurgical coal industry chain and performance exceeded the expected target increase. The news surface of the week is intertwined with multi space. In terms of power coal, on February 9, the national development and Reform Commission held a special meeting on ensuring supply and stabilizing coal prices, and interviewed some coal enterprises. At the meeting, guidance instructions were given on port prices and pit mouth prices, in order to prevent the price from rising too fast and suppress market sentiment to a certain extent. In terms of coking coal, on February 7, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of ecological environment jointly issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry. The opinions delayed the realization time point of the carbon peak goal of the iron and steel industry, which is conducive to the expectation of the market to improve the demand for coking coal. On the whole, the market is optimistic about the sector, and the increase in the week is mainly reflected in the improvement of valuation. We are still optimistic about the industry. First, overseas prices are still strong, China’s coal prices are operating at a high level, and the performance level is expected to be maintained; Second, the wind direction of carbon neutralization policy may change, which is conducive to the expected improvement of coal demand side; Third, at present, most coal enterprises publish performance forecasts, rising by different ranges. From the perspective of dynamic P / E ratio, the safety margin of coal stocks is high. Under the background of steady growth, it is suggested to pay attention to coking coal stocks with high elasticity and undervalued stocks with strong performance certainty, such as Yankuang energy, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) , Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) .
Credit view: the fundamentals are improved and the solvency of coal enterprises is improved. In terms of primary issuance, although the situation has improved, it is still difficult for low-grade and weak qualified subjects to issue. In the secondary market, the industry interest margin is lower than the level before the Yongmei incident, but the low-grade interest margin quantile is differentiated from the medium and high-grade. Investors maintain a cautious attitude towards low-grade and weak qualified enterprises. Considering that the current medium and high-grade interest rate spread is low and the available space is limited, it may be the best policy to choose the right opportunity. For exposure, the rapid de capitalization of debt and the improvement of debt structure can be considered. Coal bonds have no worries but have foresight. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of resale pressure on coal bonds in 2022.
Risk warning: policy risk; Strong price control; recession; Supply release exceeds expectations; Australian coal imports increased significantly; The transformation of individual stocks is less than expected; Other disturbance factors.
