This week (2022.2.7 – 2022.2.11, the same below): the building materials sector (SW) rose or fell by 2.79% this week. In the same period, the CSI 3 million and wandequan a index rose or fell by – 0.71% and – 0.23% respectively, and the excess return was 3.50% and 3.02% respectively.
Fundamentals and high-frequency data of bulk building materials: (1) cement: the market price of high-standard cement in China this week was 516 yuan / ton, which was – 2 yuan / ton compared with last week and + 75 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. There was no increase in prices compared with last week; Regions where prices fell: Yangtze River Delta (- 5 yuan / ton), Yangtze River Basin (- 6 yuan / ton), East China (- 6 yuan / ton) and Southwest (- 4 yuan / ton). This week, the average cement warehouse location of national sample enterprises was 65.2%, which was + 2.7pct compared with last week and + 5.7pct compared with the same period in 2021. The average cement delivery rate (daily delivery rate / production capacity in process) of the national sample enterprises was 3.0%, which was -5.4pct compared with last week and -9.9pct compared with the same period in 2021. (2) Glass: according to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the average price of the national float white glass original sheet is 2170 yuan / ton, which is + 72 yuan / ton compared with last week and + 27 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021. According to the statistics of Zhuo Chuang information, the original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces in China was 43.42 million heavy boxes, up from + 8.32 million heavy boxes last week and + 15.54 million heavy boxes in the same period in 2021. (3) Glass fiber: the median turnover of alkali free 2400tex direct yarn was 6150 yuan / ton, the same as last week, and + 375 yuan / ton compared with the same period in 2021.
The central bank has ushered in the “opening week” of credit and financial policy: the credit and financial policy data can be released in January. The central bank’s monetary policy implementation report also shows that “steady growth” is still the main tone of monetary policy. In the future, in addition to the space for continuous repair of the municipal infrastructure industrial chain, those leading companies in the growing real estate post industrial chain are also the elastic protagonists of wide credit. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as the right signal. It is suggested to pay attention to Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , as well as the varieties of building materials such as cement and pipes in the early and medium term. In terms of bulk building materials: under the force of fiscal policy, the growth rate of infrastructure rebounded, and the policies of guaranteed housing and guaranteed delivery housing stabilized the expectation of real estate investment. Based on the extension of peak staggering and the strengthening of industry self-discipline, we calculate that the supply capacity of the industry after eliminating peak staggering will decrease by 0.1% year-on-year in 2022. With the support of stable investment on demand, the cement boom can still maintain a high level, and the peak season has a certain price elasticity. The dividend yield of 5 ~ 9% in 2021 makes the current valuation of 6 ~ 7 times P / E ratio have room for repair. It is suggested to pay attention to Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty, bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain, Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) with high dividend yield, and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) with large business elasticity in the benefited north market in the medium and long term.
In terms of decoration and building materials: we expect the infrastructure chain to grow steadily, counter cyclical adjustment to boost demand, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to be repaired under the relaxation of real estate chain funds. Recently, the central government mentioned that the new special debt focuses on water conservancy, transportation, municipal infrastructure construction, affordable housing projects and other fields. The Ministry of water resources mentioned the implementation of major projects of the national water network. We expect the construction of underground pipe network and sponge city to bring sustainable increment during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The completion end of the real estate remained resilient, but the new construction and sales remained weak. The real estate sector has gradually released loose signals. Recently, according to the financial Associated Press, the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued recently, and the supervision of pre-sale funds is expected to be improved. We expect that the financing end of subsequent real estate enterprises and consumers is expected to be relaxed. Previously, the valuation of the decoration and building materials sector has been in the lower position of the historical center due to the slowdown in demand, the rise of raw materials and cash flow pressure. With the relaxation of expectations on the edge of real estate, the decline of high raw material costs, and the gradual release of bad debt provision and cash flow risk expectations, the overall sector is expected to usher in performance and valuation repair. Referring to the historical experience of the consumer building materials sector and the current competitive situation, in the stage of capital easing + confidence gradually recovering from the bottom of the real estate industry, some companies may take the lead to further increase their share and enter a new expansion cycle with the help of channel leading layout, operating efficiency advantage or financing plus leverage. The inflection point of shipment or order growth can be used as a signal on the right. Focus on Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , and it is suggested to focus on China Liansu, Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) .
Risk warning: the epidemic situation exceeded expectations, the real estate credit risk was out of control, and the policy concentration exceeded expectations.
