Market Review
This week, the light industry manufacturing industry index rose 1.10%, outperforming the market by 0.28pct; The paper sub sector rose 2.04%, outperforming the market by 1.21pct. This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.82%, and the light industry manufacturing (Shenwan) index rose by 1.10%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.28pct, ranking 18th among the 28 Shenwan industries; In the secondary industry, the paper sub sector rose 2.04%, outperforming the market by 1.21pct. This week, the four sub sectors of light industry were papermaking, packaging and printing, furniture and entertainment products in order of increase from large to small. Among them, papermaking, packaging and printing and furniture rose by 2.04%, 1.41% and 0.72% respectively this week, and the entertainment products fell by 0.18% this week.
Industrial chain data tracking
In terms of raw materials, the factory price of domestic waste (excluding tax) fell by 9 yuan / ton, and the price of foreign waste increased; The external price of wood pulp remained stable and the spot price rose; The price of dissolved pulp rose. (1) The factory price of national waste (excluding tax) fell by 9 yuan / ton this week; The CIF price of OCC Southeast Asia's main port of American waste, European waste and Japanese waste increased by US $10-13 / ton; (2) The quotation of hardwood pulp and coniferous wood pulp is stable; The spot price of hardwood pulp increased by 80 yuan / ton, and the spot price of coniferous wood pulp increased by 300 yuan / ton; In late January 2022, the wood pulp inventory of China's three major ports totaled 1.5 million tons, down 3.8% month on month; (3) The price of dissolved pulp increased by 350 yuan / ton this week.
This week, the price of cultural paper remained stable, and the price of white cardboard increased slightly; The price of carton board paper is basically stable. According to the average market price of finished paper including tax according to Zhuo Chuang information statistics, the prices of double offset paper and coated paper remained stable this week, and the price of white cardboard increased by 30 yuan / ton; The average ex factory price of carton board is basically stable.
This week, the profitability of wood pulp paper products was differentiated, and the profitability of waste paper products increased slightly. The profit level is characterized by the price difference between finished paper and raw materials. This week, the profit of wood pulp paper products is differentiated. The large double offset paper enterprises increased by about 14 yuan / ton and the small paper enterprises decreased by about 81 yuan / ton; Coated paper large paper enterprises increased by about 14 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 78 yuan / ton; White cardboard large paper enterprises increased by about 32 yuan / ton, while small paper enterprises decreased by about 31 yuan / ton; The profit of waste paper products increased by about 9-10 yuan / ton compared with last week.
In December 2021, the inventory of finished products of machine-made paper and paperboard increased by 2.4% month on month. (1) The cumulative output of machine-made paper and paperboard from January to December 2021 was 135.84 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 7.0%; (2) After excluding the influence of price factors, the finished product inventory (estimated value) of machine-made paper and paperboard manufacturing industry increased by 17.2% year-on-year and 2.4% month on month in December 2021; (3) In terms of import volume of paper and paperboard, from January to December 2021, the cumulative year-on-year decrease was 3.7%; In terms of export volume, the cumulative year-on-year increase from January to December was 9.1%.
Risk tips
The risk that macroeconomic growth slows down and terminal demand declines more than expected; Risk that the promotion of overseas new projects fails to meet expectations
