Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on February 4, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 410.4 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 4.8 million barrels; Gasoline inventory was 248.4 million barrels, a decrease of 1.6 million barrels per week; Distillate oil inventory was 121.8 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 900000 barrels; Propane inventory was 4783.8 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 1.914 million barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on February 4, 2022, U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels per day, an increase of 100000 barrels per day per week and 600000 barrels per day compared with a year ago. On February 11, the number of drilling rigs in the United States was 635, with an increase of 22 in the week and 238 in the year; There are 219 drilling rigs in Canada, with an increase of 1 in a week and 43 in a year. Among them, there are 516 oil production rigs in the United States, with an increase of 19 in the week and 210 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were melamine (up 36.6%), n-butanol (up 25.6%) and ethylene (up 21.3%); The top three declines were: natural gas (down 9.1%), threonine (down 6.8%) and urea International (down 5.9%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price increases were butadiene (up 74.5%), melamine (up 49.7%) and butyl acrylate (up 40.8%); The top three declines were urea International (down 25.8%), liquid chlorine (down 21.9%) and glycine (down 18.2%).
Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are R134a price difference (up 193.5%), ethylene price difference (up 116.2%) and maleic anhydride (benzene method) price difference (up 65.5%); The top three declines were styrene (down 290.8%), coal head ethylene glycol (down 208.0%) and R410A (down 200.0%).
In terms of monthly price difference, the top three products with price difference increase are calcium carbide PVC price difference (up 428.2%), butadiene price difference (up 150.6%) and butyl acrylate price difference (up 140.6%); The top three declines were: polyvinyl alcohol price difference (down 237.2%), coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 97.4%) and oil head ethylene glycol price difference (down 88.8%).
Investment proposal and investment object
This week, the price of adipic acid reached a new high in recent years, rising to 14500 yuan / ton. We continue to be optimistic about the future price and profit of adipic acid. On the one hand, the two new demand points of PBAT and nylon 66 will soon start to significantly boost the demand for adipic acid. On the other hand, under the background of double carbon target, the carbon emission of traditional hydrogen production methods is too large, which will seriously restrict the possibility of adipic acid capacity expansion in the future. We believe that the price center of adipic acid in the future is likely to be similar to the current BDO. It is estimated that the price and price difference of adipic acid in the future are expected to reach 17000 yuan / ton and 10000 yuan / ton respectively, with a high profit ceiling. It is suggested to focus on Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (600426, buy) and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) (600346, buy). The former has a capacity of 360000 tons of adipic acid and has a certain capacity of expansion; The latter plans to build a new capacity of 300000 tons of adipic acid.
Risk tips
China’s policy changes; The project progress does not meet expectations; Oil prices fluctuated sharply.
