Event: on February 10, the people’s Bank of China released the financial data of January, which showed that the RMB loan of that month was + 4.2 trillion yuan and the social finance was + 6.17 trillion yuan; At the end of the month, the stock of social finance increased by 10.5% compared with that of social finance at the end of the month. On February 11, the CBRC announced the 21q4 regulatory indicators of commercial banks. The asset scale increased by 8.6% year-on-year, and the net interest margin was + 1bp month on month; The central bank released the 21q4 monetary policy implementation report, and easing continued.
The social finance data reached a new high, the credit supply welcomed the “good start” and the wide credit was further confirmed. The “Tianliang” social finance data in January confirmed the pace of wide credit, in which the loan growth rate was 11.6%. It is valuable to achieve stability under the high base, demonstrating the determination to stabilize growth. The growth rate of undiscounted bills, corporate bonds and government bonds also increased.
Regulatory indicators show that the prosperity of banks is rising, large banks have improved more, and the agricultural and commercial interest margin continues to widen. In 21q4, the growth rate of bank asset expansion and net interest margin rose by 0.3pct and 1bp respectively month on month, supporting the upward performance and stable and good asset quality. Among them, large banks are the main force of wide credit, with a significant decline in non-performing loans, and the interest rate spread of agricultural and Commercial Bank of China increased significantly by 7bp month on month.
The main tone of financing is loose and the main tone of implementation is loose. 21q4 new general loan interest rate was – 11bp month on month, stimulating credit demand and optimizing bank asset quality; The main tone of the policy continued to be loose, and the transition from broad money to broad credit was accelerated to further stabilize growth expectations.
Multiple interest is good, which helps the bank to repair its valuation. In January, the credit supply increased year-on-year, driving economic expectations and protecting the annual performance; 21q4 regulatory indicators show that the performance has tended to rise, and the fundamentals are solid and stable; The monetary policy implementation report shows that the financing cost is down and the credit expansion continues, and the bank’s statement expansion and asset quality optimization are expected to go hand in hand. The logic of sector valuation repair is clear.
Investment suggestion: credit width continues to be increased, and the logic of bank valuation repair is enhanced. The main logic of the current banking sector: broad credit promotes steady growth, economic expectations stabilize, and bank valuation repair. The continued easing of goods administration, the higher than expected financial data and the upward performance confirmed by regulatory indicators all point to the continuous and accelerated implementation of the wide credit policy and maintain the “recommended” rating of the industry. It is suggested to pay attention to Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) in high-quality joint-stock banks and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) in high expansion city commercial banks.
Risk tip: economic growth is less than expected; Decline in the quality of bank assets; Wide credit policy shift.
