Plate catalysis comes out one after another, and the final recovery constitutes the current valuation logic. With the verification of Omicron impact Co., Ltd., the promotion of specific drug research and development, the complete liberalization of epidemic prevention restrictions in overseas countries, and the easing of China’s epidemic prevention policies, the recovery expectation of wine travel tax exemption and catering sector has returned to the high level after the epidemic in 2020. Its symbolic signal is that the market begins to make profit prediction and valuation based on “the end after the complete recovery of the epidemic”.
Hotel sector: the space is still large under the recovery scenario. It is suggested to grasp the current window period. Since the release of the in-depth report “wait for the dawn of recovery in the shock, lay out the short-term storm and lay out the post epidemic era” on December 7, 21, the hotel sector has been as we predicted: in the repeated epidemic in the second half of 21, the epidemic prevention system has become mature / its effectiveness has been continuously verified, and the expectations of the recovery of the supporting sector have been accumulating, and the leading share prices of hotels have also been repaired in the shock. On the basis of the consensus of “post epidemic recovery and cycle reversal”, the core contradiction of hotel sector investment has changed from “expectation of recovery” to “how elastic / space is under the scenario of recovery cycle reversal”. In this regard, we believe that:
1) the historical deregulation of the supply of the hotel industry under the two-year epidemic constitutes the core support for the high prosperity of the industry after the end of the recovery: by first liberalizing the national horizontal benchmarking and the resumption of the interpretation of the historical cycle, it is expected that the RevPAR peak under the end of the subsequent industry recovery is expected to reach + 10% year-on-year in 19 years. Considering the extent of this supply deregulation, this prediction may still be conservative. The subsequent uncertainty mainly comes from the macroeconomic side.
2) during the two tortuous years of the epidemic, the rapid expansion and structural upgrading of hotel leading stores are an “undercurrent” that can not be ignored, and the “growth” of “dormant” will be truly released in the post epidemic era: especially ignored by the market is that the upgrading of industry consumption and the structure of leading products have also accelerated in the two years after the epidemic, Among them, mid-range and above products will constitute the core of the hotel’s leading store expansion and the key to competition.
3) in Q1, due to the control needs of the Winter Olympics / two sessions, the overall pressure of hotel operation has been expected in the market, so the share price of the sector is less affected by short-term operation fluctuations; Considering that the hotel performance space is still large under the recovery situation, a window period of “space on the top and potential Catalysis / support on the bottom” of the share price of the sector may be formed at present. It is expected that after the two sessions and the subsequent April / may, it will enter the verification stage of policy expectation / operating data: if the operating data recovers significantly, it will promote the sector to continue to deduce under the optimistic assumption of economic recovery.
Tax exemption: the passenger flow has recovered significantly, and the discount has narrowed month on month, helping to improve the profitability / performance of the leading enterprises. With the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control / driven by the peak tourism season in Hainan in winter, the tax-free passenger flow and sales have achieved significant growth, and with the narrowing of discount, it is expected to achieve the same increase in sales / gross profit margin. The competition pattern of follow-up sectors and the advantages of leading operation supply chain remain stable, and the long-term value of China free is not reduced.
Scenic spot / catering sector: the passenger flow is expected to enter the recovery period, and the leader may restart the growth logic. Scenic spot: after the epidemic, the travel recovery is superimposed on the policy end. The tourism planning of the 14th five year plan and the policy of stimulating consumption and domestic demand of the national development and Reform Commission continue to be conducive to the recovery. We are optimistic about the development prospect of related targets of peripheral tourism / vacation tourism under the trend of consumption upgrading and shortening of tourism radius; In addition, the operating leverage of natural / leisure scenic spots is relatively high, and the performance elasticity will be more significant after the passenger flow recovers. Under the expectation of relaxing the entry-exit policy, outbound tourism will also be repaired. Catering: the operation of the industry is under deep pressure under the epidemic situation, and the chain rate of supply clearance continues to increase. With the subsequent repair of fundamentals, the leader is expected to restart the growth and expansion logic; New consumption elements such as tea / tavern / fast fashion also bring new attractions to the catering track.
Investment suggestion: hotels / duty-free / scenic spots / restaurants have been affected by the epidemic to varying degrees. At present, with the stabilization of epidemic prevention and control / the slowdown of travel control / the spread of vaccines & the promotion of specific drugs, the sector is expected to gradually recover in the follow-up and promote the performance / valuation repair of core leading stocks. It is recommended to focus on the tax-free leader China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , the hotel leader Junting / Jinjiang / first tour, the scenic spot leader Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) / Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) , and it is recommended to pay attention to the Hong Kong stock catering tourism targets such as Helens / Naixue’s tea / jiumaojiu / Huazhu group / Fosun travel culture, as well as scenic spots such as China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) / Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) / Emei Shan Tourism Company Limited(000888) and exit cursors such as Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) / Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) .
Risk tip: the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations, the macroeconomic growth rate / policy was less than expected, and the expansion was less than expected.
