Covid-19 oral specific drug was approved to enter China. In February 11th, the State Food and Drug Administration approved the import registration of Pfizer COVID-19 virus drug NAT MATV tablets / Ritonavir Tablets package (Paxlovid). This product is an oral small molecule COVID-19 virus therapeutic agent for the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors. Compared with macromolecular drugs (such as neutralizing antibody drugs for injection), small molecule oral drugs have the advantages of direct antiviral effect, low production cost and medication cost, easy transportation and storage conditions, convenient use at home and so on. Therefore, they are expected to end the epidemic.
The superposition is expected to be continuously verified. Zhong Wu, a researcher at the national emergency prevention and control drug Engineering Technology Research Center, said: "At present, patients with mild to moderate diseases account for more than 85% of patients infected with covid-19 virus. If these people can be treated with small molecule oral drugs at home, they can not only quickly eliminate the virus, but also minimize the risk of transmission to others. At the same time, they can shorten the isolation time, which may play an important role in changing China's existing epidemic prevention and control strategy 。” Therefore, we can reasonably expect that after covid-19 oral specific drug paxlovid is imported into China, it will accelerate the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control policies, and the expectation of orderly liberalization of policies and restoration of physical prosperity will be further significantly enhanced.
Based on the increased expectation of policy support in the overall consumption sector, we are optimistic about the investment opportunities in the wine, tourism and catering sector. At present, the relaxation trend of epidemic situation outside China is continuously verified, such as opening the country and trying to resume direct flights. 1) On the afternoon of February 7, the Australian Prime Minister announced that Australia would reopen its international borders to the remaining visa holders on February 21. Immigrants need to hold a valid visa and have been vaccinated with two doses of approved vaccine. Under the background that the United States, Britain and other countries have gradually opened their doors in the second half of last year, Australia was jokingly called a "hermit country". We think this means that the overall trend of the international travel market is improving. 2) On February 9, according to the news from the CBI of the British Federation of industry, a two-week test of direct flights between China and the UK may be launched this month. If the test is successful, regular direct flights between China and the UK may be resumed in the future. The planned test will start in the middle and late of this month. The route is two round-trip routes from London Heathrow LHR to Shanghai Pudong PVG, with a maximum passenger capacity of 30%. 3) On February 9, the official of the Department of culture and tourism of Yunnan Province announced the "notice on the resumption of inter provincial team tourism in Yunnan Province from now on". Since there are no medium and high-risk areas for epidemic prevention and control in Yunnan Province, Yunnan travel agencies and online tourism enterprises will resume the business of inter provincial team tourism and "air ticket + Hotel" from February 9, 2022.
Based on the above positive signals, we believe that: 1) 2022 is the year of bottom reversal of tourism and catering related consumption. The path of high probability liberalization is first China and then the country. The liberalization of China's travel is in progress. The liberalization of the country is in the designated road map. There are expected to be three policy window periods in 2022, namely, after the Winter Olympics, after the two sessions and after the 20th National Congress; 2) The downgrade of global epidemic control will form a systematic impact on the overall consumption sector β， The profit exposure of demand recovery and cost reduction expanded to strengthen the value of consumption allocation; 3) The expectation of the capital market has been formed. Vacation is better than business, and the long-term is better than the surrounding.
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\u3000\u30001. Tax exempt [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) ] [ Wangfujing Group Co.Ltd(600859) ]; 2. Hotel [ Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) ] [ Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) ] [ Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) ] [Huazhu group]; 3. Theme park of the destination [Haichang Ocean Park] [Fosun tourism], scenic spot of the destination [ China Cyts Tours Holding Co.Ltd(600138) ] [ Huangshan Tourism Development Co.Ltd(600054) ] [ Changbai Mountain Tourism Co.Ltd(603099) ] [Mount Emei a] [ Guilin Tourism Corporation Limited(000978) ]; 4. OTA [Ctrip] [Tongcheng Yilong]; 5. Chain catering and supply chain of catering [jiumaojiu] [hailun company] [Haidilao] [ Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) ] [Yihai international]; On site tea and supply chain of catering [Naixue's tea] [ Shanghai Hi-Road Food Technology Co.Ltd(300915) ] [ Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) ] [ Namchow Food Group( Shanghai) Co.Ltd(605339) ] [ Jiahe Foods Industry Co.Ltd(605300) ]; Prefabricated dishes for catering [ Suzhou Weizhixiang Food Co.Ltd(605089) ] [ Tongqinglou Catering Co.Ltd(605108) ]; 6. Outbound travel [ Caissa Tosun Development Co.Ltd(000796) ]; 7. Airport Airlines [ Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) ] [ Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) ] [Meilan Airport] [ China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) ] [ Air China Limited(601111) ] [ China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) ]; 8. Pay special attention to the value of consumption sector allocation.
Risk warning: the recovery of the epidemic situation is not as expected; Strengthen epidemic prevention and control and increase risk; Downside risks of macro consumption; Market competition risk, etc.
