Weekly gathering of scientific and technological views (Part 2)
1) 5g + optical fiber broadband construction and two wheel drive, the capital expenditure of North American telecom operators is expected to reach a new high this year. Mainstream cellular operators in the United States invested heavily in spectrum resources last year and will increase 5g network construction this year to grab major users and meet the growing demand of online economy. Credit Suisse predicts that the capital expenditure of the five major U.S. cellular operators will increase by 10% year-on-year this year, and 5g industrial chain related companies dominated by overseas customers are expected to benefit. On the other hand, with the continuous promotion of broadband infrastructure plan, FTTH connection in the United States is expected to double in 2025, and Chinese PON optical module, Bosa, ont ODM / OEM, PLC and cable chip companies will also benefit.
2) the capital expenditure guidance of top5 technology company is positive, and the benefit certainty of data communication optical module is high. The cloud business of 21q4, a North American cloud giant, has maintained a growth rate of 40%, and the investment in related cloud infrastructure continues to increase. Lightcounting predicts that the growth rate of capital expenditure of top15 ICPs may reach 19% in the future. The global cloud infrastructure market is expected to surpass the telecommunications equipment market. The rapid development of AI related services is becoming the main force driving cloud infrastructure investment, which is beneficial to the high-speed data communication market.
3) the connection of overseas Internet of things is growing rapidly, and the export of modules and terminals is expected to increase year-on-year with the easing of chip bottleneck. TSR predicts that the global shipments of non mobile cellular terminals will increase by 7.2% in the next five years, and industrial M2M will become the largest scenario, among which smart meter, asset tracking, automotive electronics, retail payment and fleet management are the top five scenarios of shipments. The high growth of the module industry continues, and China's leading manufacturers have achieved comprehensive transcendence. In terms of IOT terminals, the advantages of Chinese manufacturers are expected to be copied from asset tracking and other segments to more fields, such as shared travel, industrial wireless router, fwacpe, etc.
Investment advice
The transfer of market style, the continuous outflow of funds from crowded tracks and the impact of investor sentiment are the main factors for the poor performance of science and technology growth tracks since this year. We believe that when the bottom of sentiment appears and there are no marginal negative factors, the market will rebound. With the increasingly fierce contradiction between steady growth and structural transformation, the digital economy will become the focus of investment in the 14th five year plan, which will not only improve the production efficiency of traditional industries, but also bring considerable digital consumption. In the short term, it is difficult to improve the market risk appetite. The performance level or more important than the valuation level has become the primary consideration for institutions to build positions. It is suggested to pay attention to three main lines throughout the year: operators, export communication equipment manufacturing industry and emerging track from 0 to 1. Pay attention to the important time nodes such as the two sessions and the first quarterly report, and increase the allocation of the communication sector when the risk appetite is expected to improve.
1) 5g and Gigabit broadband dividends continued to penetrate, and the ARPU value of C-terminal of operators stabilized and upward. With the gradual completion of 5g wide coverage construction, 5g private network combined with the digital transformation of various industries has become an important part of the digital economy. 5g + UHD and 5g + Digital twins of the Winter Olympic Games show the industrial end enabling potential. We believe that the scale of industrial Internet business of the three operators will continue to improve. With the implementation of cloud network integration strategy, "pipeline value" will penetrate into more diversified service values. On the other hand, the actions of mobile repurchase and group holdings increase reverse market expectations, and the increase of defensive varieties + institutional positions is expected to help the continuous return of the value of a shares. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to China Mobile, China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) , China United Network Communications Limited(600050) throughout the year.
2) the new infrastructure economic stimulus plan after the epidemic, AI and metauniverse's continued empowerment of cloud platforms are expected to drive the boom resonance of Telecom and data center capital expenditure in developed countries in North America and Europe this year. The strong delivery capacity of China's communication equipment manufacturing industry, the sex price ratio brought by the scale advantage and the long-term cooperative relationship with mainstream overseas equipment manufacturers contribute to the high boom of orders this year.
In terms of 5g industrial chain, it is suggested to pay attention to the long-term mainstream partners in the middle and upper reaches of overseas main equipment manufacturers Suzhou Dongshan Precision Manufacturing Co.Ltd(002384) , Dongguan Dingtong Precision Metal Co.Ltd(688668) , Jingxin communication (H shares), Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Shenzhen Gongjin Electronics Co.Ltd(603118) , Cig Shanghai Co.Ltd(603083) , alaid (registered for issuance), etc.
In terms of data communication and optical modules, it is recommended to pay attention to the mainstream suppliers Zhongji Innolight Co.Ltd(300308) , Eoptolink Technology Inc.Ltd(300502) , Suzhou Tfc Optical Communication Co.Ltd(300394) , Advanced Fiber Resources (Zhuhai) Ltd(300620) in North America and Broadex Technologies Co.Ltd(300548) , Cig Shanghai Co.Ltd(603083) which are expected to achieve a share breakthrough. In terms of IOT modules and terminals, it is recommended to pay attention to manufacturers with perfect overseas channels, high order boom and strong supply chain guarantee ability, such as Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) , Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) , Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) , Queclink Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(300590) , Beijing Inhand Networks Technology Co.Ltd(688080) .
3) from 0 to 1, the sub industries with high prosperity and high growth, such as communication + automotive intelligence, communication + new energy and communication + meta universe, have high growth rate. At the same time, the company has small historical burden and high performance at the molecular end. The growth rate is expected to hedge the impact of risk preference at the denominator end. It is suggested to pay attention to the companies related to lidar, new energy connector and 3D visual sensing industry chain, such as Ju Guang technology, Suzhou Recodeal Interconnect System Co.Ltd(688800) , Changguang Huaxin (registered to be listed), Obi Zhongguang (registered to be listed).
Risk tips
The capital expenditure of operators and Internet cloud manufacturers is lower than expected, the intensification of Sino US science and technology trade friction affects the cost and stability of the supply chain, the short-term contradiction between supply and demand of chips cannot be alleviated, resulting in the delay of order delivery, and new variants lead to repeated global epidemics.
