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In recent years, beer sales have continued to decline. Since 2013, China’s beer production and sales have continued to decline, and the trend has accelerated during the epidemic.
The decline in the growth rate of construction and real estate industry indicates that the beer industry may have reached the sales ceiling. Beer production and marketing has a high correlation with infrastructure and real estate industries. With the gradual improvement of China’s urbanization rate, China’s beer consumption may be close to the ceiling.
The rise of unit price drives the growth of beer industry.
There is a huge gap between the price level of China’s beer industry and other countries in the world, and the income per ton is far lower than that of large international beer manufacturers.
In recent years, except for the fluctuation during the epidemic, the overall upward trend of beer prices in China is obvious.
In the future, with the further interpretation of the consumption upgrading trend and the continuous decline of beer consumption, the high-end trend represented by the rise of unit price will become the only way.
With the progress of high-end, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) 21 has achieved good performance.
Market Review
In the last week, the food and beverage index rose by 0.31%, ranking 22nd among the 28 industries in Shenwan, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.52pct. Other dairy products (+ 3.76%), snacks (+ 3.64%) and health products (+ 3.17%) in the sub industries performed better.
Top 5 gainers of individual stocks: Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) , Ganyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002991) , Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) , St Cody, Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589)
The top five stocks with declines: Ligao Foods Co.Ltd(300973) , Gansu Huangtai Wine-Marketing Industry Co.Ltd(000995) , Shanghai Laiyifen Co.Ltd(603777) , Shanghai Milkground Food Tech Co.Ltd(600882) , Zhejiang Huatong Meat Products Co.Ltd(002840)
Investment strategy
Key recommendations: 1 For companies that occupy a leading position in subdivided fields and have a good competitive pattern and strong ability to raise prices, focus on Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) and pay attention to Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) ; 2. the companies with less influence and marginal improvement will recommend Eternal Asia Supply Chain Management Ltd(002183) (Baijiu brand operation and marketing effectiveness), Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) (stable white milk business, high growth cheese industry). 3. After foreign investment, the competition pattern of the industry has improved. For beer companies with strong high-end certainty, focus on Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) and pay attention to China Resources beer and Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) ; 4. Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) is recommended for the company with good fundamentals and reasonable current valuation.
