Sector market review
This week (02 / 07-02 / 11), the transportation index rose 5.12%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82%, outperforming the market by 4.3%, ranking 12 / 29. Among the transportation sub sectors, the airport sector increased the most (11.73%), and the bus sector decreased the most (- 1.35%).
Industry perspective
Express delivery: according to the monitoring data of the State Post Office, during the Spring Festival this year (from January 31 to February 6), the national postal express industry received and delivered 749 million express packages, an increase of 16% over the same period of the lunar calendar last year. After deducting the adjustment factors of individual brand enterprises, the overall unit price of express business in December was 9.70 yuan / piece, an increase of 2.26% month on month. In the peak season, the price of express delivery increased, and the performance of express delivery enterprises entered the cashing period. Yuantong released the performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 was 2-2.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.20% to 24.52%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was 1.046-1.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 174.68% to 227.20%. Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) issued the performance forecast for 2021, with a loss of 840-950 million yuan, mainly due to the asset investment and the provision of asset impairment, which still put pressure on the annual performance. If the impact of the above asset impairment is excluded, the 21q4 performance is expected to be profitable. S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) business strategy adjustment pays more attention to quality growth, the impact of production capacity cycle gradually subsides, actively optimizes product structure and customer structure, lean cost control, Kerry Logistics promotes international business development, and Ezhou airport lays the foundation for future development; With strong certainty in performance restoration, 21q4 made a profit of 2.4-2.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%, deducting non net profit of 1.45-1.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%.
Logistics: there is a high threshold in the field of chemical logistics. After Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) , Xiangshui and other accidents, the strict supervision makes the supply of the industry limited, and the demand side still grows every year. The performance growth of leading chemical logistics enterprises is highly uncertain, focusing on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co.Ltd(002930) with low valuation. The upgrading of manufacturing industry increases the demand for tob productive supply chain logistics. Enterprises that pay attention to system investment and strong management will win and pay attention to Hichain Logistics Co.Ltd(300873) .
Aviation Airport: in February 11, 2022, the State Administration of Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Pfizer’s COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid (nematv tablets / Ritonavir Tablets) with the condition of emergency treatment. It was used to treat mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) patients with adult high risk factors. The 3 phase clinical trial showed that the risk of hospitalization and death could be reduced by 89%. Paxlovid is an important means to treat covid-19 and catalyzes the release of international expectations. According to the “14th five year plan” for civil aviation development, the average annual growth of takeoff and landing sorties from 2019 to 2025 was 6.5%, lower than the previous growth rate of more than 10%, and the industry supply was tightened. On January 20, the State Council issued the tourism development plan for the 14th five year plan, which timely launched the action to promote inbound tourism, and the international line is expected to be relaxed. It is expected to accelerate the normal allocation of vaccines in the aviation sector and actively improve the value of recommendation 19-60109. It is expected that the investment in vaccine production and operation will be significantly improved in the airport.
Shipping: centralized transportation: the CCFI index was 3587.91 points, up 0.63% month on month; The SCFI index was 4980.93 points, down 0.6% month on month. Oil transportation: the crude oil transportation index BDTI closed at 687.00, up 1.2% month on month and 32.4% year on year. The refined oil transportation index bcti closed at 645.00, up 9.5% month on month and 32.2% year on year. We are concerned about the recovery of oil transportation.
Risk tips
The risk of sharp rise in oil prices, the risk of devaluation of RMB exchange rate and the risk of price war exceeding expectations.
