Investment advice
Pfizer covid-19 oral drug has been approved in China, and the means of epidemic prevention and control are more diversified. In February 11th, the State Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Pfizer’s COVID-19 oral drug Paxlovid (nematv tablets / Ritonavir Tablets) in an emergency response to the treatment of mild to moderate New Coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in adults with severe risk factors. Oral small molecule covid-19 therapeutic drugs have been approved in China, which is expected to build a double insurance of prevention + treatment together with covid-19 vaccine, so as to further help China’s epidemic control. At present, although there are local fluctuations, the overall situation of epidemic prevention and control in China is stable. In the future, in-hospital diagnosis and treatment (outpatient, hospitalization, surgery, etc.) and consumer medical treatment are expected to continue to recover.
Biological products: consumer biological products are expected to recover. From the supply side, in 2021, the supply of batch issuance of biological products in China will be tight in the first half of the year, and the recovery will be obvious in the second half of the year. In the future, if the impact of the follow-up epidemic situation is further weakened, conventional vaccines and blood products are expected to achieve a faster volume. The demand for HPV vaccine, 13 valent pneumonia vaccine and other self funded class II vaccines with consumption properties is expected to continue to increase. Growth hormone is expected to accelerate the recovery of new patients with the gradual improvement of medical mobility.
Medical services: the epidemic situation is controlled and the flow is expected to continue to recover. In 2021, the flow of hospital diagnosis and treatment has shown a restorative trend. From January to November 2021, the total number of diagnosis and treatment in national medical and health institutions reached 6.05 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%. The flow of private medical services is expected to gradually recover in the future, the consumption upgrading trend has not changed, and the demand for medical devices with consumption attributes may also be further released.
Chain pharmacies: performance volatility gradually weakened. With the gradual control of the epidemic, customers have resumed their offline buying habits, the passenger flow of pharmacies has gradually recovered, and the business situation is improving day by day. At the same time, the performance base and expectation of relevant enterprises in the sector have gradually stabilized, and the certainty of future performance growth has increased. The increase of industry concentration and the incremental market brought by prescription outflow will be conducive to the development of head chain drugstores.
Medical beauty: non rigid demand is gradually released. Most offline medical and beauty consumption is non rigid demand. According to the health statistics yearbook, there were 8.893 million outpatient service people in China’s beauty institutions in 2020, with a year-on-year increase of 6.16%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly. With the gradual release of demand, the number of consumers is expected to gradually increase, which is good for enterprises related to the industrial chain.
Medical devices: the demand for diagnosis and treatment devices in the hospital is expected to grow. Cardiovascular, orthopedics, Nephrology, digestive endoscopy and other equipment fields directly related to in-hospital diagnosis and treatment are expected to directly benefit from the increase in the demand for in-hospital surgery and diagnosis and treatment. The demand for low value consumables for medical protection is mainly overseas. Meanwhile, Chinese consumers have formed good use habits after the epidemic, and the overall demand is expected to be relatively stable.
In vitro diagnosis: routine detection or repair. During the epidemic period, the demand for routine testing business is restrained, and the flow of diagnosis and treatment in the hospital will continue to improve in the future, which is expected to bring performance repair opportunities for routine businesses such as chemiluminescence and biochemical testing. As covid-19 detection is the key link of epidemic prevention and control, the demand for nucleic acid detection products in China is stable, and antigen self-test products play an important role in the normal prevention and control of overseas individuals, which also deserves attention.
Key companies
Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Changchun High And New Technology Industries (Group) Inc(000661) , Aier Eye Hospital Group Co.Ltd(300015) , Micro-Tech (Nanjing) Co.Ltd(688029) , Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) etc.
Risk tips
Covid-19 virus mutation makes epidemic prevention and control more difficult; Demand recovery is less than expected; The intensity of centralized purchase, negotiation and price negotiation of drugs and devices exceeded expectations; The supply of anti epidemic materials increased and the quantity and Price Bureau deteriorated; The growth rate of medical insurance expenditure and health finance fell, and the increment of the industry decreased; R & D and new product launch are not as expected; The first quarterly report of the annual report is less than expected; Exchange risk of export enterprises; Medical malpractice risk;
