Talk every Monday: policies continue to protect the industry under the background of stable growth and risk prevention
Affordable rental housing loans are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans. The opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds have been issued. The former provides investment increment outside the traditional commercial housing market for economic growth, while the latter can provide a clearer reference for pre-sale funds, and the fund supervision policy setting of the industry will be more reasonable. Under the background of steady growth and risk prevention, the policy continues to take care of the industry and maintain a moderate wind direction.
On February 8, the people’s Bank of China and the Bank Of China Limited(601988) Insurance Regulatory Commission made it clear that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects would not be included in the concentration management of real estate loans.
In terms of scale, the scale of affordable housing loans is small: in September 2021, the newly announced balance of affordable housing development loans was 4.64 trillion, accounting for 9% of the total balance of real estate loans of 51.4 trillion. If only for the affordable rental housing mentioned in this policy, the actual total amount of loans is lower.
From the perspective of recent policy guidance, policies actively promote the construction of affordable rental housing, which can provide some support for social investment: according to our calculation. The actual investment in 2022 is 336 billion yuan. On the basis of 2021, the proportion of new investment in affordable rental housing in 2022 is 165%, and the new investment is 204.1 billion yuan, which can increase the real estate investment by 1.38 percentage points.
Vigorously promoting affordable rental housing can provide a new direction for the industry. Although the overall profitability of affordable housing is poor, it can provide valuable and stable cash flow for the industry, which is a good breaking point under the background of industry downturn. Local urban investment platforms, real estate enterprises with rich agent construction experience and state-owned central enterprises have the highest income level.
On February 10, Caixin news agency, 21st century economy and other media channels reported that the opinions on the supervision of national commercial housing pre-sale funds had been issued recently.
From the recent regulatory adjustment of pre-sale funds, there are differences in the adjustment direction of pre-sale funds policies in different cities, showing different tightness. After the introduction of the national pre-sale fund supervision policy, local governments have obtained direction guidance for the implementation of the policy, and have a grasp of the implementation of the policy. After the introduction of this opinion, local governments can carry out more targeted fund supervision under the guidance of policies and in combination with local actual conditions, providing a good environmental support for a more flexible and reasonable pre-sale fund supervision policy.
There will still be more good and bad enterprises than bad industries. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, the introduction of the national opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds means that the situation of too strict implementation of the supervision of pre-sale funds in some cities will be alleviated; On the other hand, for real estate enterprises, real estate enterprises with financial problems are expected to remain the key object of policy supervision, while for high-quality real estate enterprises, the overall friendliness of regulatory policies is expected to be improved.
Through the two policy guidance introduced this time, we can touch the two main lines of the current fundamental repair of the industry – namely, steady growth and risk prevention. We believe that in 2022, the industry policy will form a situation of upward pressure and downward support. Taking the stable economic growth and no systemic risk as the bottom line, we will gradually improve the industry fundamentals slightly, while avoiding the old way of using real estate to stimulate short-term economic development. The policy will continue to maintain a moderate and good direction.
Data tracking (January 31-February 6): some data fell sharply during the Spring Festival
New housing market: the transaction area of 30 cities is – 94pct and – 35PCT in a single week and cumulative year-on-year respectively, first tier cities – 89pct, – 35PCT, second tier cities – 98pct, – 67pct, third tier cities – 92pct and + 9pct.
Second hand housing market: the transaction area of second-hand housing in 14 cities was – 100pct year-on-year in a single week and – 39pct year-on-year in total.
Land market: the cumulative construction area of land supply in 100 cities is – 0.2pct year-on-year, the cumulative construction area of transaction is – 44pct year-on-year, the cumulative transaction amount is – 73pct year-on-year, and the land transaction premium rate is 31%.
City Market: month on month: Beijing (/), Shanghai (- 81pct), Guangzhou (- 99PCT), Shenzhen (/ PCT), Hangzhou (/ PCT), Wuhan (- 96pct), Nanjing (/ PCT).
Investment strategy: it is suggested to pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and Longhu group with stable operation and good credit background. Focus on high-quality real estate enterprises Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) and Greentown China under the product-oriented logic.
Risk tip: the sales market is down, some real estate enterprises have a storm of debt default, and the policy is beyond the expected regulation.
