Tracking of epidemic prevention policies at home and abroad
1) tracking of overseas epidemic prevention policies: since February, many overseas countries have gradually relaxed or even cancelled epidemic prevention restrictions. For example, Sweden officially announced the end of covid-19 epidemic on February 9, lifted all epidemic prevention restrictions, ended large-scale nucleic acid testing, and opened borders to the whole EU.
2) China's epidemic prevention policy tracking: on February 12, Pfizer covid-19 oral specific drug was urgently approved and registered in China.
3) civil aviation travel data tracking of Spring Festival transportation: on the 27th day of Spring Festival transportation, the number of civil aviation passengers was about 1.09 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 18% in 21 years, 277% in 20 years and - 43% in 19 years. In the 27 days before the Spring Festival transportation, the total number of passengers was 24.81 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 38% in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of - 31% in 20 years and - 50% in 19 years.
Covid-19 epidemic tracking
Diagnosis of covid-19 pneumonia: 1) China: from February 5 to February 11, China reported 299 local confirmed cases (199 last week), mainly in Guangxi Province (Baise City), Liaoning Province (Huludao City, Shenyang City), Guangdong Province (Shenzhen City, Guangzhou City, Huizhou City), Tianjin city, Beijing City, Hebei Province (Langfang City), Hunan Province (Shaoyang City) Guizhou Province (Tongren City); As of 23:00 on February 12, 2022, there are 43 medium and high-risk areas in China, including 4 high-risk areas (Beijing 1, Tianjin 1, Liaoning 1 and Guangxi 1) and 39 medium risk areas (Beijing 3, Tianjin 4, Hebei 1, Liaoning 1, Heilongjiang 24, Guangdong 5 and Guangxi 1). 2) Global: from February 5 to February 11, a total of 16.94 million cases of covid-19 pneumonia were newly confirmed, with a chain comparison of - 20%; The number of deaths increased by 73183, a month on month increase of - 4%. 3) United States: from February 5 to February 11, about 1.73 million cases were newly diagnosed, a month on month decrease of 22%; A total of 17476 deaths were added, down 7% month on month. 4) UK: from February 5 to February 11, 540000 new cases were diagnosed, down 61% month on month; There were 1390 new deaths, down 48% month on month.
Covid-19 vaccination: 1) China: as of February 11, China has reported about 3.04 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine. About 4.83 million doses of covid-19 vaccine were vaccinated every day from February 5 to February 11, an increase of 287% month on month. 2) Global: as of February 11, about 10.3 billion doses of covid-19 virus vaccine had been vaccinated worldwide, and about 62% of the world's population had received at least one dose of vaccine.
Airport & aviation: civil aviation passenger volume + 38% year-on-year in the 27 days before the Spring Festival Transportation
1) industry: according to the vertical and horizontal data of air travel, from February 7 to February 11, the daily average number of flights executed by Chinese and international routes was about 11829, an increase of 15.8% over the same period in 2021, 64% and - 22.5% respectively over 2020 and 2019, and an increase of 71.6% over last week.
2) aviation department: from February 7 to February 11, according to the data of flying standard, the average daily flight numbers of Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, spring and autumn, Jixiang and Huaxia were 1024, 1949, 1716, 517, 353 and 188 respectively, with the average of 98.9%, 84.6%, 75.2%, 37.6%, 57.6% and 48.3% respectively.
3) Airport: from February 7 to February 11, according to the flight control data, the average daily take-off and landing sorties of Shanghai Pudong, Shanghai Hongqiao, capital airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) were 445, 286, 284, 550 and 370 respectively, 65.5%, 53.1%, 107.7%, 73.7% and 43.9% respectively compared with last week.
4) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) January data: I) take-off and landing sorties: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) 23000 take-off and landing sorties in January, a year-on-year decrease of 14% in 2021, 27% and 28% in 2020 and 2019 respectively. II) passenger throughput: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) the passenger throughput in January was about 1.915 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 31% in 2021, 55% and 57% in 2020 and 2019 respectively.
5) Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) January data: I) takeoff and landing sorties: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) January took off and landed 23000 sorties, a year-on-year decrease of 14% in 2021, 27% and 28% in 2020 and 2019 respectively. II) passenger throughput: Shenzhen Airport Co.Ltd(000089) the passenger throughput in January was about 1.915 million person times, a year-on-year decrease of 31% in 2021, 55% and 57% in 2020 and 2019 respectively.
Tax exemption: the tax exemption discount on outlying islands was basically the same month on month
1) Hainan flight volume tracking: from February 5 to February 11, the average daily inbound and outbound flights of Sanya Phoenix Airport and Haikou Meilan International Airport were 426 and 525 respectively, an increase of 7% and 16% respectively compared with last week; In the same period, the average daily passenger volume of Haikou Airport (expected) was 70033, an increase of 33.1% month on month.
2) tax free channel discount tracking: on Sunday, the tax-free discounts of direct mail, China free outlying islands, Haifa control marine tourism investment and China export service outlying islands were basically the same month on month.
Investment advice
1) recommended Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) : the current valuation has the configuration cost performance, and the marginal travel demand in China is upward. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) has signed a contract with LV, and the company is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
2) three major airlines are recommended: the epidemic prevention policy is released in an orderly manner, the signal is released continuously, the dawn of the recovery of international flights may be present, and the company will show great profit elasticity in the recovery stage.
3) recommendation Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) : China's transport capacity accounts for a large proportion, and its performance is the first to recover. Before the opening of the door, its profit performance is more stable and has high long-term growth. Intercontinental routes are expected to become a new growth point.
4) recommendation Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) : with obvious scale advantages, obvious improvement in management and accelerated overseas recovery, it is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth.
5) recommendation Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) : leading industry of chain hotel group β， The light management mode opens up the incremental space of the sinking market. Under the three-year goal of 10000 stores, the number of hotels opened in 21-23 years is expected to reach 30%.
6) recommendation Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) : Direct stores account for 34%, the highest among listed hotel groups, and the epidemic repair cycle is expected to show high performance flexibility; After the acquisition of Junlan and Jinglan, the company's leading position in the middle and high-end is expected to usher in a period of rapid growth in the future.
7) recommendation China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) : under the comprehensive layout of outlying islands + online + Airport + city, the company still has great growth space, and the expansion of duty-free shops on outlying islands in 22 years is expected to bring new catalysis.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, the demand of the industry was less than expected, the oil price and exchange rate fluctuated sharply, the tax-free policy changed, and the competition in the tax-free industry intensified.
