Core view
Undervalued value + rising trend of interest rate + rotation of market style, and the market of insurance sector is rising. The insurance index rose 10.4% this week and 8% since the beginning of the year, with an excess return of 15% compared with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. We believe that this round of market is mainly caused by the market style rotation superimposed on the rising trend of interest rate and the advantage of undervalued value: 1) since the beginning of the year, the trend of medicine, TMT, food and beverage and other sectors has been depressed, the market style rotation has gradually increased the favor of blue chip sectors with high dividend undervalued value; 2) After the holiday, the yield to maturity of the 10-year Treasury bond of China bonds increased slightly by 9bps. In addition, the Federal Reserve has repeatedly released a strong interest rate increase signal, which was transmitted to the Chinese market. On the contrary, there is no obvious downward pressure on the interest rate level. On the contrary, there is a large upward driving force, which is significantly positive for the insurance fund bond investment dominated by holding to maturity. We believe that the liability side of life insurance has not yet shown obvious signs of improvement, but the high base effect caused by the switch between new and old serious illness insurance in 1m21 has dissipated, and the effect of the transformation of the agent team in the past two years is worth looking forward to; The vehicle insurance under the reform of commercial vehicle fees has entered the channel of both quantity and quality. The valuation of the insurance sector continues to be at a historically low level, and the market under the rotation of market style is expected to continue. It is suggested to seize the allocation opportunity.
The Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the Swiss and German markets have been included in the new progress of connectivity. On February 11, the CSRC issued the regulations on the supervision of interconnected depositary receipts business of domestic and foreign stock exchanges, which mainly includes six aspects: 1) expand the scope of application, include qualified listed companies of Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the domestic aspect, and expand to Switzerland and Germany in the overseas aspect; 2) Make arrangements for financing CDRs; 3) Adjust the disclosure requirements of financial information and internal control; 4) Optimize the contents of annual report disclosure; 5) Clarify the obligation of disclosure of changes in equity; 6) Clarify the applicable rules for major asset restructuring. Expanding and optimizing the interconnection mechanism of domestic and foreign capital markets is a practical measure to promote institutional openness, which is conducive to broadening two-way financing channels, supporting enterprises to make good use of China’s international markets and two kinds of resources for financing development in accordance with laws and regulations, improving China’s capital market’s ability to serve the entity economy and international competitiveness, and providing richer investment varieties for domestic and foreign investors. The market scope of the interconnection mechanism is gradually broadened, which will not only bring incremental cross-border business to securities companies, but also continuously improve the medium and long-term international competitiveness of Chinese securities companies.
Investment proposal and investment object
In terms of securities companies, double click on market liquidity and policy, continue to be optimistic about the spring market of the sector, select high-quality targets with fundamentals, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. At present, it is still the first to promote the main line of derivatives, recommending Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) (600030, overweight), Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) (601688, overweight), and paying attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (03908, not rated); Secondly, we should continue to pay attention to the main line of large public offering and recommend Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) (000776, buy), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) (601377, increase Holdings).
In terms of diversified finance, A-Shares recommend Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (603300, buy) as the leader of high-altitude work platform (AWP) lessee; Hong Kong stocks recommend Far East Hongxin (03360, buy), a leader in financial leasing, and BOC aviation leasing (02588, overweight), a leader in Asia Pacific Aircraft leasing; US stocks recommend BlackRock (BLK. N, overweight), a global asset management leader, and Noah wealth (Noah. N, buy), a third-party high net worth asset management leader.
In terms of insurance, the scale of the team has gradually bottomed out, the production capacity of the remaining team has been improved, and it is expected to start a good start gradually; The inflection point of property insurance has arrived, and we look forward to the synchronous improvement of premium and cor; The outlook of the equity market is optimistic, and the liberalization of the investment ceiling adds upward flexibility. We are optimistic about large insurance companies that actively promote reform and enhance production capacity through science and technology empowerment and cross sales, and maintain the optimistic rating of the industry. Follow up suggestions focus on Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) (601318, buy), China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) (601601, not rated), AIA (01299, not rated).
Risk tips
The suppression of systemic risk on the performance and valuation of securities business; Stricter supervision than expected;
The long-term interest rate is lower than expected; Related policy risks in diversified financial field.
