Market review:
As of the closing on February 11, the steel sector rose 6.95% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 0.82%, and the steel sector rose 6.13pct ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the weekly growth rate of the steel industry ranks fifth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, with an increase of – 0.92% year to date, ranking eighth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Talk every Monday:
Crude steel output rebounded and the profit per ton of steel was repaired in a short time: according to the data of China Iron and Steel Association, in late January, the key statistics showed that iron and steel enterprises produced 22.1496 million tons of crude steel, and the daily output of crude steel was 2.0136 million tons, an increase of 1.32% month on month. Under the comprehensive influence of the slowdown of the pressure of the early horizontal control policy and the high profit per ton of steel, the daily output of crude steel of key steel mills increased by 0.28% month on month in January; At present, it is still in the northern heating season and the centralized period of maintenance. In February, the intensity of environmental protection and production restriction in Hebei, Henan and other places is still strong. As of February 10, the weekly output of five major varieties of steel was – 2.69% (- 0.6pct), and the recovery rate of national crude steel output slowed down significantly. Driven by the expectation of demand recovery, the steel price strengthened as scheduled, and the gross profit per ton of steel was repaired in a short time. As of February 11 The spot gross profit per ton of hot coil spot steel rebounded to around 900 yuan / ton again; The high growth credit data released this week, the loosening of real estate policy and the expectation of large-scale infrastructure investment drive the steel market to generally pick up, but the actual effect of the steady growth policy still needs to be verified by the high-frequency data in the next two to three weeks. The production restriction policy in the heating season also covers the middle of March. At that time, the production of steel mills is expected to gradually pick up. In the long run, Under the condition that the restriction orientation for crude steel output is not clear, it is expected that the resumption of production of steel mills will continue, and the profit per ton of steel may be continuously suppressed. Focus on the growth opportunities of stainless steel, special steel, seamless steel pipe and cast pipe segments, as well as the valuation and restoration opportunities of industry leaders, superimposed with the expectation of rising infrastructure investment, Pay close attention to the investment opportunities brought by the accelerated pipeline transformation to the cast pipe and welded pipe market;
Intensive introduction of industrial policies and stricter supervision of the iron ore Market: this week, the Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of the iron and steel industry. The document did not emphasize taking the lead in reaching the peak of carbon. At the same time, it adjusted the requirements for the self-sufficiency rate of iron metals to further strengthen the construction of China’s resource guarantee capacity; The Ministry of industry and information technology and other eight departments issued the implementation plan on accelerating the comprehensive utilization of industrial resources, which mentioned strictly controlling the capacity scale of new steel, electrolytic aluminum and other related industries, and putting forward the requirements for the utilization of scrap and other renewable resources; On Friday afternoon, the national development and Reform Commission said that in view of the recent changes in iron ore prices and other relevant situations, the national development and Reform Commission and the State Administration of market supervision will carry out joint supervision and Research on the iron ore market. The supervision of the iron ore market has been further tightened, and the main prices of iron ore futures have dropped significantly;
Market impact: the expectation of steady growth will drive the steel market to warm up in the short term and the profit per ton of steel will be repaired. In the medium and long term, the resumption of production of steel mills will continue. We pay attention to the suppression of the profit per ton of steel and the release of infrastructure demand due to the weak expectation of administrative production restriction. The stainless steel processing enterprises with anti cycle and growth attributes have significant investment value and low valuation of special steel, seamless pipe, welded pipe Casting pipe enterprises have good investment opportunities;
Investment strategy: focus on recommending stainless steel processing enterprises Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) and pipe processing enterprises Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) with growth potential benefiting from the recovery of manufacturing industry, and recommend special steel leaders Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) with significant valuation advantages;
Risk tip: the policy implementation is less than expected, the supply contraction is limited, and the demand is less than expected.
