Key investment points
Investment strategy: steady growth at the policy level, relaxed coal consumption indicators and favorable demand expansion; The policy recognizes medium and high coal prices and improves the expectation of medium and long-term profit stability of the industry. All the above are conducive to the improvement of sector valuation. At the market level, the demand expands under the background of steady growth, while the guaranteed supply capacity is expected to withdraw after the peak season, the industry margin is tightened, and the coal price is expected to run strongly. Overseas coal prices have soared and imported coal prices have been seriously inverted. Stock capacity is a scarce resource. Coal stocks are generally valued at 5-6 times, and the stability of price and profit expectation is improved. It is suggested to actively layout coal stocks in 2022. According to the recommendation idea of individual stocks, the performance growth of companies with high proportion of long-term association is more stable, and the valuation of companies with high proportion of coal in the market is more attractive. Thermal coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , power investment and energy, Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Meijin Energy Co.Ltd(000723) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
Summary and Prospect of power coal: the supply recovers slowly after the festival, and the demand level is higher than that in previous years. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1010 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of supply, after the Spring Festival holiday, the coal mines in the main producing areas resumed work slowly. After the price limit meeting of the national development and Reform Commission, some coal mines lowered coal prices, but the coal supply in the market is still tight; Due to the impact of environmental protection inspection and epidemic prevention and control, it will take time to restore transportation capacity. In terms of import, bidding has been conducted for coastal power plants recently, but the bidding has not been settled yet. At present, the external price is high. Although there are inquiries from downstream power plants, there are few transactions and more wait-and-see. In terms of demand, affected by low-temperature weather such as rain and snow, the power generation load of Nanfang power plant is high, and the demand level is higher than that in previous years. At present, the supply basically meets the daily consumption demand; In the case of slow recovery of upstream supply, the demand for downstream chemical industry and coking is more positive. However, after the price limit policy, there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream, and the inventory will be replenished after the price stabilizes. On the whole, the coal supply showed a tight trend this week. Follow up attention will be paid to the resumption of production and price reduction of coal mines in the origin and the recovery of terminal demand.
Summary and Prospect of coking coal: both supply and demand are weak, mainly stable. As of February 11, the price (tax included) of Shanxi main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port was raised by 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month. In terms of supply, after the festival, the resumption of production of coal mines in the main producing area of coking coal has made rapid progress, and most of them have resumed normal production. According to Fenwei statistics, the raw coal output of the coal mine in this period increased by 594600 tons to 8956200 tons month on month. In terms of import, the epidemic situation in Mongolia has rebounded recently. Ganqi Maodu port was closed for 4 days during the Spring Festival, and customs clearance was resumed on February 5. The port was cleared for 4 days this week, with an average of 76 vehicles per day (week on week – 13 vehicles). The customs clearance of Mongolian coal continues to operate at a low level, with few marketable resources. At the same time, the demand of China’s coking coal market has weakened, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. In terms of demand, the downstream coke enterprises have poor profitability, poor enthusiasm for raw coal procurement, more digestion of early-stage inventory, traders are also mainly on the sidelines, and the demand side is weak as a whole. On the whole, the coking coal market continues the pattern of weak supply and demand, and follow-up attention is paid to the changes in the profitability of downstream coke enterprises.
Summary and Prospect of coke: both ends of supply and demand shrink, and maintain stable operation after price reduction. As of February 11, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, and the national average profit per ton of coke was about – 84 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the coke market operated stably after two rounds of price reduction. Affected by environmental protection inspection restrictions and profit inversion, the operating rate of coke enterprises decreased. In terms of demand, due to the impact of the Winter Olympic Games, the downstream steel mills have increased their efforts to limit production, the maintenance of blast furnace is still increasing, and the steel mills have delayed procurement. At present, most of them are consumption inventory. On the whole, both ends of coke supply and demand have shrunk. Although the production restriction of steel mills is stronger than that of coke enterprises, considering that coke enterprises have generally suffered losses, it is expected to maintain stable operation after two rounds of price reduction, and pay attention to the inventory changes of coke enterprises in the future.
Power coal: the port coal price was flat and the port inventory increased. (1) As of February 11, the price of 5500 kcal Shanxi thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 1010 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) As of February 10, the price of power coal in Newcastle was US $274.22/ton, up 11.5% week on week. (3) As of February 11, the transfer in volume of Qinhuangdao port railway was 552000 tons, with an increase of 29000 tons on a weekly basis.
(4) as of February 11, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 5.01 million tons, an increase of 610000 tons on a weekly basis. The coal inventory in the Yangtze River Estuary was 3.311 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coking coal: the price of coking coal in China was flat, and the inventory of coking plants decreased month on month. (1) As of February 11, the price increase (including tax) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. (2) As of February 10, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine was US $459.25/ton, down 0.97% on a weekly basis.
(3) as of February 11, the total inventory of coking coal of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 11.985 million tons, with a decrease of 1048000 tons on a weekly basis.
Coke: the price fell month on month, and the operating rate of coking plant decreased. (1) As of February 11, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2800 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. (2) As of February 11, the coke oven productivity of China’s independent coking plants (100) was 69.50%, with a decrease of 2.90% on a weekly basis. (3) As of December 24, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, with a decrease of 0.42% on a weekly basis. (4) As of February 11, the total coke inventory of three types of coking enterprises (production capacity 2 million tons) was 1211000 tons, with an increase of 169000 tons around the ring.
Review of industry highlights: (1) Regulation and control has been overweight again, and the price of origin has begun to callback. (2) China Power Union: it is expected that the power demand will increase by 5-6% in 2022. (3) 81 coal enterprises in Indonesia will face shutdown penalties due to failure to submit annual plans. (4) the coal output will increase rapidly after the Spring Festival. (5) China and Mongolia support the enterprises of the two countries to carry out long-term and stable cooperation on expanding the trade of coal and other mineral products
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Risk of coal import impact.
