Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: Performance Forecast of light industry manufacturing sector
Event: as of February 12, 2022, 69 enterprises in the light industry manufacturing sector have announced the performance forecast for 2021, 52 enterprises have achieved profits and 17 enterprises have suffered losses. Among the profitable enterprises, 24 enterprises increased year-on-year compared with 2020, the performance of 21 enterprises decreased year-on-year, and 7 enterprises turned losses into profits.
Among the 24 enterprises with year-on-year growth, the upper limit of growth is expected to reach 1232.73%. Among the profit-making enterprises, 24 increased year-on-year, with large differences in the increase range. The largest increase is expected to be Sunrise Group Company Limited(002752) (002752. SZ), and the upper limit of the increase is expected to be 1232.73%. Its net profit in 2021 has far exceeded the level in 2019 before the epidemic. The cost and revenue side helped the performance of 24 companies rise year-on-year. From the cost side: companies with year-on-year performance increase mainly rely on good cost control to improve the gross profit margin of products, so as to realize the increase of net profit attributable to the parent company; From the revenue side, companies with year-on-year performance increase mainly rely on the improvement of product capacity and the recovery of product market to improve their main business income, so as to realize the increase of net profit attributable to the parent company.
The cost and revenue sides make simultaneous efforts to promote the steady growth of enterprise performance. From the cost side: companies with year-on-year performance increase mainly rely on good cost control to improve the gross profit margin of products, so as to realize the increase of net profit attributable to the parent company; From the revenue side, companies with year-on-year performance increase mainly rely on the improvement of product capacity and the recovery of product market to improve the profit of main business, so as to realize the rise of net profit attributable to parent company.
Among the seven enterprises that turned losses into profits, Tianjin Binhai Energy & Development Co.Ltd(000695) changed the most. Tianjin Binhai Energy & Development Co.Ltd(000695) mainly engaged in the production, supply and printing of steam and electricity. In 2020, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was -16.5162 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 38 million yuan to 60 million yuan in 2021. The main reason is that the soaring prices of raw and auxiliary materials of upstream suppliers made Haishun printing, a holding subsidiary, abandon some orders from major customers; The fixed cost base such as depreciation of production equipment, rent and labor cost of Haishun printing industry has increased, making the cost continue to rise.
Among the 21 enterprises with year-on-year decline, the lower limit of decline is expected to reach – 95.99%. Among the 21 profit-making enterprises, the largest decline is expected to be Xiamen Yanjan New Material Co.Ltd(300658) (300658. SZ), and the lower limit of the decline is expected to be – 95.99%. The main reason is that the sales volume and price of melt blown non-woven fabrics of the company decreased significantly year-on-year in 2021; The relocation costs of the plant and materials are relatively large; International shipping costs continued to rise; The number of new infants and young children has declined; The price pressure transmitted from the terminal market and the rise in the price of upstream bulk commodities led to a downward trend in the company’s gross profit margin during the reporting period. Subject to many pressures on the cost side, the performance of 21 enterprises fell year-on-year. On the whole, the main reason for the year-on-year decline of enterprise performance comes from the cost side, including the increase of labor costs, the increase of sales expenses and the rise of raw material prices. The reasons for the revenue side are reflected in two aspects: the slowdown of market demand and the decline of sales revenue.
Market review (February 7-february 11):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry rose by 1.10% this week, ranking 21st among the Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the paper sector performed better, up 2.04%, and the performance of cultural and entertainment products was poor, down 0.18%; The textile and garment industry rose 2.67% this week, ranking 19th among Shenwan’s 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the textile manufacturing sector rose 2.12%, the clothing and home textile sector rose 2.34%, and the jewelry sector rose 4.93%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: TDI price has increased this week, and MDI price has increased compared with last week.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on February 11, the market price of coniferous pulp was 6351.61 yuan / ton, up 2.70% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 5314.32 yuan / ton, up 2.00% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp was 6200.00 yuan / ton, up 0.54% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 4725.00 yuan / ton, up 0.71% from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on February 11, the market price of corrugated paper was 3918.75 yuan / ton, up 0.48% from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 6020.00 yuan / ton, up 2.54% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on February 11, the market price of double offset paper was 5700.00 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on February 11 was 6433.33 yuan / ton, up 0.52% from last Friday. Textile and clothing: on February 11, the price of cotton was 22839.23 yuan / ton, up 0.61% from last week; The price of yarn has increased, and the price of polyester has increased.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy margin of the real estate industry has been relaxed. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector and customize the home in the near future
It is recommended to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ] and [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; Software home is recommended to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ] and [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
