Home furnishing: the real estate policy continues the loose trend and continues to be optimistic about the 22-year valuation repair
The opinions on the supervision of pre-sale funds of commercial housing were launched to alleviate the pressure of capital flow of real estate enterprises, and the real estate policy continued to be loose. On February 10, the national supervision opinions on the pre-sale funds of commercial housing were issued, which is different from the previous "one city, one policy" in various regions and the lengthening of the enterprise payment collection cycle by the whole supervision. The introduction of the national unified supervision policy will alleviate the capital flow of real estate enterprises. Since October 21, the margin of real estate supervision has slowed down significantly, and measures such as interest rate and reserve requirement reduction have been continuously launched. However, the real estate data from November to December are still poor. Therefore, the regulatory authorities have launched more, more specific and effective measures, and we believe that this trend is expected to continue. Loose policies are good for new real estate construction, land acquisition and sales, and real estate loans performed well in January. Under the loose policy, the real estate data in 22 years is expected to hit the bottom and rebound, and the completion guarantee household performance continues to be realized. We judge that the sector is still in the layout period.
Target recommendations: (1) continue to be optimistic about Baima Longtou Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) in the medium and long term, build a leading advantage in multiple dimensions, have strong growth certainty, and the logic of share promotion is smooth. (2) This round of recommendations focuses on the investment opportunities of elastic targets with high growth and low value. It is most recommended to Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (15x for PE in 22 years), and pay attention to Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (13X for PE in 22 years) and Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) (18x for PE in 22 years). Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) released the performance forecast. The revenue of 21a was 3.45 billion (+ 30.70%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million (+ 16.5%), which achieved high growth under the high base and exceeded the market expectation. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 410 million yuan in 22 years, corresponding to the current stock price of 14x, with outstanding performance price ratio.
Others: high quality white horses are arranged on the left, and pay close attention to the inflection point of performance
Stationery: the impact of double reduction is comprehensively controllable, and we continue to be optimistic about Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) rising quarter by quarter and entering a new stage of retail reform. The traditional business has maintained steady growth. Although affected by the epidemic, double reduction and other multiple factors, the company has optimized the product echelon and category expansion through high-end new product promotion and increased investment in this volume. The channel attaches importance to the head construction of the core business district. The regional share continues to rise among the domestic brands. With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic, the performance during the flood season of primary school is worth looking forward to; The new businesses kelipu and Jiumu 21 have achieved beautiful cash every year. In particular, kelipu's revenue and profit maintain rapid growth and will be better cashed in the post Jiumu epidemic period. Looking forward to 22 years, the traditional business will promote the reform of retail operation, and klip & Jiumu will enter the performance release period. We believe that the company will maintain a better development trend. Corresponding to the 22-year valuation at the bottom of history, we suggest the layout.
E-cigarette: bat new tobacco is the most beautiful, and the core supply chain target is smore international. Bat, PMI and Altria successively released annual reports, among which bat new tobacco achieved the most beautiful (revenue + 51%), the market share of VUSE increased steadily, and the growth driven by glo new products accelerated. Judging from the performance of overseas tobacco empires in the past 21 years, the trend of new-type tobacco remains unchanged. We suggest that smore international, the core target of the industrial chain, be arranged on the left (China's business is expected to improve month on month, feelm air's new technology release will strengthen customer stickiness, and the contribution increment of one-time small smoke), and we suggest paying attention to Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) of new-type tobacco of China Tobacco series.
Papermaking: focus on pattern deduction, and select Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) and Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) . (1) Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) Guangxi phase II project is progressing smoothly. At present, the self-sufficiency rate of the company's pulp is 55% - 60%. It is expected that the scale and efficiency will be improved in 22 years. Consider the recent rise in the price of cultural paper; Under the advantage of scale, the profit performance of the company is better than that of its peers. It is expected that the bottom of 22q1 profit is expected to rise. The dark time has passed and the value on the left is prominent. (2) Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) : the energy pressure in the fourth quarter is great, and the performance of 21q4 is expected to be slightly under pressure. Considering the expectation of price increase in 22q1, the consolidation of 400000 tons of acquisition projects in 22 years and the production of 300000 tons of food card projects, we are still optimistic about the growth of the company in 22 years and continue to suggest attention.
Risk tip: the trade environment continues to deteriorate, the real estate regulation exceeds expectations, the increase of paper price is lower than expected, and the double control policy is intensified.
