Key investment points
Since the beginning of the year, the sector has slightly lagged behind the market: this week, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index rose by 3.94%, the gem index fell by – 5.59%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.82%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.02%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector led the market by 0.92 percentage points. Since the beginning of 2022, the chemical (Shenwan) industry index has fallen by – 7.07%, the gem index by – 17.34%, the CSI 300 index by – 6.86%, the Shanghai Composite Index by – 4.86%, and the chemical (Shenwan) sector lags behind the market by – 2.21 percentage points.
Event:
(1) international oil prices continued to rise this week, with WTI crude oil rising by 2.15% to US $93.90/barrel, Brent crude oil rising by 2.39% to US $94.98/barrel, and the international oil price stood at a high point in recent 8 years.
(2) on February 11, the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments issued the notice on the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version).
(1) geopolitical warming raises oil prices, and crude oil inventories continue to decline. Geopolitical warming: U.S. national security adviser Sullivan said the United States believes that Russia may take offensive military action as early as next week before the end of the Beijing Winter Olympics, or try to trigger conflict in Ukraine. The market is increasingly worried about the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, a major energy producer. Russia is one of the world’s largest oil producers and an important supplier of crude oil and natural gas. If there is a comprehensive conflict between the two countries, the West may implement relevant energy sanctions against Russia. Previously, Germany said it would not rule out sanctions on the “beixi-2” project. Geopolitical uncertainty and supply concerns supported the high oil price. Limited increase in OPEC + production: at the meeting held on Wednesday, OPEC + still insisted on increasing production by 400000 barrels per day per month as planned, and blamed the surge in crude oil prices on consumer countries’ failure to ensure adequate investment in fossil fuels in the process of switching to greener energy. Previously, Goldman Sachs and other institutions predicted that OPEC + may accelerate production under the background of the recent sharp rebound in oil prices and the repeated calls for production increase from the United States, India and other countries. Therefore, the result of maintaining the original yield increase is lower than the previous market expectation. In addition, according to IEA data, OPEC + production increased by only 250000 barrels per day in December (the completion rate was 63%). The low investment in the past few years and recent geopolitical events may damage the actual production capacity of OPEC +, and then affect the fulfillment of the production increase plan. US crude oil inventories continued to decline: according to the latest EIA data, crude oil inventories fell by 4.8 million barrels to 410.4 million barrels in the week ended February 4, the lowest commercial inventory level since October 2018. Previously, the market expected crude oil inventories to increase. Again capital said that gasoline demand has rebounded significantly, the impact of the Omicron variant has passed, and travel demand has recovered. Refineries increased production, resulting in a decline in crude oil inventories. We believe that the supply side disturbance under the current extremely low inventory will make the elasticity of oil prices more obvious. It is not ruled out that there is still room for crude oil to rise under the supply side disturbance. In addition, we need to pay attention to the possibility of Iranian crude oil returning to the market and the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, or bring some pressure on oil prices in the medium term. Crude oil prices have reached a new high, global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leaders in the oil service industry have fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise of oil prices has driven the increase and expansion of chemical products prices, among which private large-scale refining has fully benefited: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , while the relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by cost demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
(2) emphasize energy efficiency optimization, and energy-saving materials are expected to receive attention. The implementation guide states: “for enterprises whose energy efficiency is below the benchmark level, especially the benchmark level, actively promote the advanced technology and equipment proposed in this implementation guide, the catalogue of green technology promotion, the catalogue of recommended industrial energy-saving technologies, the catalogue of” energy efficiency star “equipment products, and strengthen energy system optimization, waste heat and pressure utilization, pollutant emission reduction Comprehensive utilization of solid waste and transformation of public and auxiliary facilities, improve the green level of production processes and technical equipment, improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization, and promote the formation of a strong Chinese market. ” The application of energy-saving materials will effectively reduce energy consumption, and then play a major role in the field of carbon reduction and cleaner production. Aerogels have the characteristics of light weight, heat insulation and low dielectric constant. They are widely used in aerospace, energy saving, new energy vehicles and other fields, and are expected to be used as energy saving materials in the civilian field. Related targets: Jiangxi Chen Guang New Materials Co.Ltd(605399) (2000 tons in construction year, about 10 thousand capacity) China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) (50 thousand cubic meters aerogel project has been trial production at the end of 2021, and plans to expand production to 300 thousand cubic meters in 2025); Jiangxi Hungpai New Material Co.Ltd(605366) (opened in October 2021, “functional aerogel production base construction project”, can achieve annual output of 10 thousand cubic meters of functional silica aerogel). Pan Asian Microvent Tech (Jiangsu) Corporation(688386) (acquisition of great sound is hard to hear. The annual layout of the 250 thousand cubic meters aerogel project). (Shanghai)
Accelerate the clearance of backward production capacity and enhance the asset value of enterprises with carbon emission reduction advantages. The implementation guidelines also put forward that “by 2025, the proportion of production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the oil refining industry will reach 30%, the proportion of production capacity above the energy efficiency benchmark level in the coal to methanol, coal to olefin and coal to ethylene glycol industries will reach 30%, 50% and 30% respectively, the production capacity below the benchmark level will be basically cleared, the effect of energy conservation and carbon reduction in the industry will be remarkable, and the ability of green and low-carbon development will be greatly improved.” Leading enterprises with low energy consumption, low carbon emission and low cost will have core competitiveness, and the asset value is expected to be revalued. Related targets: Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) (leading enterprise of coal to olefins, layout of green hydrogen to help carbon neutralization), Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) (model of efficient utilization of one head and multi line resources), and leading private refining and chemical enterprises: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346)
Product prices are mixed: the products with the highest price increases include melamine (51.22%), butadiene (27.59%), sulfuric acid (98%) (21.62%), butyl acrylate (17.35%), ethylene (CFR Southeast Asia) (17.22%). The products with the highest price decline include dimethyl carbonate (- 15.89%), coke (- 12.94%), American henryhub Futures (- 11.53%), hydrochloric acid (- 10.00%), sodium tripolyphosphate (industrial grade 94%) (- 9.27%).
It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or realize the crossing cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) . With the improvement of health awareness, sugar substitutes have become the general trend of the times. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading food additives Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) in the business cycle. New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to pay attention to the targets of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is suggested to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning events: macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
