View of this week: the global new energy vehicle market boom continues, and the sales data in the first month of 2022 is bright
The transformation of traditional car enterprises was accelerated, and new forces of car making poured in rapidly. The global sales of new energy vehicles performed well in January 2022. 1) Subsidies are difficult to stop the heat of new energy vehicles. On December 31, 2021, the notice on the financial subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2022 jointly issued by four ministries and commissions of the state pointed out that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2022 will decline by 30% on the basis of 2021. According to the past experience, the subsidy policy has gradually reduced the impact on the market of 6007} cars from the previous year. 2) China’s new forces of car making are pouring in rapidly, sharing the same score with traditional car enterprises. At present, the sales volume of all car companies that disclose the sales volume data increased significantly year-on-year in January 2022, among which the sales volume of Xiaopeng, ideal and Nezha exceeded 10000, followed by Weilai and zero. On a month on month basis, affected by the impulse of car companies during the Spring Festival holiday and rush loading before the decline of subsidies, the sales base of new energy vehicles was high in December 2021. The sales of Xiaopeng, ideal and Weilai fell to a certain extent on a month on month basis, while the sales of Byd Company Limited(002594) , Nezha and Zero run continued to grow. 3) The year-on-year growth rate of the European market was better than expected, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles increased rapidly. According to the official website data of various countries, the sales volume of eight major Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in Europe in January 2022 was 120400, with a year-on-year increase of 31%, and the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 19.7%. Among them, Spain and the United Kingdom had the highest year-on-year growth rate in January, reaching 158% / 90% respectively, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden had a year-on-year growth rate of about 50%, and Norway had the highest penetration rate of new energy vehicles, exceeding 90% in January 2022. 4) The US market is catching up from behind and is expected to have broader space in the future. According to marklines data, in January 2022, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles in the United States was 62000, with a year-on-year increase of + 80% and a month on month increase of + 13%.
The boom of global new energy vehicle industry chain will continue in 2022. At the beginning of 2022, China, Europe and the United States Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile markets all performed well. We expect that the global sales of new energy vehicles will exceed 10 million in 2022, and the industry will maintain a high-speed development trend. This week, the new energy vehicle sector has been greatly adjusted due to the impact of sentiment and funds, but we believe that the industry is basically facing the upward trend, and the overall valuation of the sector has fallen significantly from the previous high. It is suggested to focus on the core targets of the industrial chain such as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) .
Market review this week: the adjustment range of power equipment sector is large in the sixth week of 2022
This week, the power equipment sector fell 8.2%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 9.0%, of which the motor sector performed best (+ 6.2%) and the battery sector performed relatively poorly (- 11.7%).
Industry chain tracking: the prosperity of lithium battery industry chain continues, and the price of silicon continues to rise
Lithium battery: the downstream demand boom is superimposed, and the shortage of some raw materials continues. The overall price of lithium battery industry chain remains high this week, and ternary and lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have increased significantly.
Photovoltaic: the price of silicon materials remained stable this week, and the prices of silicon wafers and cells increased. With the rapid release of domestic and overseas demand for silicon terminals after the Spring Festival, it is expected that the domestic installed capacity will gradually maintain a high level in 2022.
Risk tips: changes in new energy industry policies, supply chain bottlenecks lead to lower than expected demand, intensified market competition leads to decline in industry profitability, etc.
