Market review:
As of the closing on February 11, the coal sector rose 13.86% this week, the CSI 300 index rose 0.82%, and the coal sector rose 13.04pct ahead of the CSI 300 index. From the perspective of sector ranking, the weekly increase of coal sector ranks first among Shenwan 31 sectors, with an increase of 9.07% year to date, ranking first among Shenwan 31 sectors.
Talk every Monday:
The power coal price is relatively strong, and the national development and Reform Commission deployed to ensure supply and stabilize the price: with the continuous replenishment of the downstream, the port inventory remains low. During the Spring Festival, the supply of some coal mines falls slightly, the demand of non power plants warms up after the festival, and the power coal price is relatively strong. As of February 11, the coal price at Qinhuangdao port (q5500) was flat at 1010 yuan / ton; On Wednesday afternoon, relevant departments held a meeting to further strengthen the price limit of coal, strengthen the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and interview some enterprises with falsely high coal prices. It is expected that the subsequent rise of coal prices will be limited. With the gradual resumption of production and increase in production of coal mines after the festival, the fluctuation range of coal prices is expected to narrow. Recently, coal enterprises have successively issued announcements of substantial pre increase in performance, Pay attention to the repair trend of Industry Valuation under the background of large increase in performance and transformation of new energy and coal chemical industry;
In the short term, the production of steel mills is limited, and the second round of coke increase and decrease is gradually implemented: this week, the national blast furnace operating rate has dropped significantly, the environmental protection and production restriction measures in Hebei, Henan and other places have been tightened, at the same time, the coke inventory of steel mills has increased significantly, the replenishment of storage has come to an end, the second round of coke increase and decrease of 200 yuan / ton has gradually fallen to the ground (400 yuan / ton in total), and the factory price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan has fallen to 2800 yuan / ton; The safety inspection in Shandong and Shanxi has become stricter, and the price of coking coal continues to operate strongly under the influence of the security inspection action in the main producing areas. The price of main coking coal produced in Shanxi in Jingtang Port has stabilized at 2830 yuan / ton; The possibility of continuous administrative production restriction in the follow-up iron and steel industry gradually decreases, and the demand for double coke in the medium and long term is worry free. However, due to the impact of environmental protection production restriction in the short term, the price of double coke may continue to be weak;
Market impact: the price of power coal is relatively strong, the performance of coal enterprises is expected to increase and the transformation expectation is expected to promote the revaluation of the sector; Affected by the limited production in the heating season and the overhaul in the Spring Festival, the output of steel mills decreased significantly, and the price of coal coke operated weakly;
Investment strategy: focus on Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) and Yankuang energy, which benefit from the central rise of Changxie coal price, abundant cash flow and high dividend rate, and pay long-term attention to Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) benefiting from the increase of coking coal price and the deepening of national reform.
Risk warning: the policy strength exceeds the expectation, the demand is less than the expectation, and the power policy changes.
