Pig prices fell 10.5% week on week, and some mainstream listed pig enterprises released their January reports.
① pig prices fell by 10.5% on a weekly basis. On Saturday, the national pig price was 12.32 yuan / kg, down 10.5% on a weekly basis; The average wholesale price of pork in China was 20.95 yuan / kg, down 5.1% from before the Spring Festival; Before the Spring Festival, the loss of self bred pigs was 336.7 yuan / head, and the profit of outsourcing piglet breeding was 2.44 yuan / head. ② The proportion of low body reborn pigs going out of the market picked up, and the willingness to make up the market was basically the same. According to the data disclosed by Yongyi consulting (2.6-2.10): the proportion of domestic pigs within 90 kg in China accounted for 10.74%, with a weekly increase of 0.27 percentage points, and the epidemic situation is still relatively low; The market price of 15kg piglets in the scale farm this week was 399 yuan / head, which was flat on a weekly basis, up 159% from 154 yuan / head at the bottom. The price of 50kg binary sows was 1643 yuan / head, down 0.3% on a weekly basis and up 32.7% from 1238 yuan / head at the bottom. ③ Some mainstream listed pig enterprises released their January report. Some listed pig enterprises have published the January 2022 report. From high to low, the number of slaughter in January 2021 is Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 150.6, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 95.9, COFCO jiajiakang 40.4, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 38.1, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) 7.1, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) 12.7, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) 13.0, Dongrui Food Group Co.Ltd(001201) 4.7, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 1.5; The year-on-year growth rate of slaughter volume from high to low is Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) 139.6%, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 50.0%, COFCO jiajiakang 25.5%, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 21.9%, Hunan Zhenghong Science And Technology Develop Co.Ltd(000702) 2.2%, Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) – 16%, Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) – 20.4%, Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) – 26.7%. ④ The inflection point of the pig cycle still needs to be observed. The valuation of mainstream companies is in the bottom area, which can change time for space. From July to December 2021, although the stock of fertile sows decreased by about 7% month on month, the inflection point of pig price may appear in 2023: I) since late October 2021, the prices of piglets and breeding pigs have rebounded sharply. The recent decline in pig price has not led to a significant decline in the enthusiasm of filling the stock, and the change of stock of fertile sows in the later stage still needs to be observed; II) since the beginning of 2021, inefficient sows have been cleared and the efficiency of breeding pigs has been continuously improved; III) from 2020 to 2021, a huge amount of pork imports need to be digested for two consecutive years; IV) mainstream listed pig enterprises plan to increase by more than 30% in 2022. The cost of 10000 pig farms and ordinary farmers is concentrated at 13 yuan / kg, and it is difficult to form effective elimination when the pig price is higher than 13 yuan / kg. We maintain our previous judgment that if there is no serious epidemic in the pig industry, the pig price will be relatively low in 2022, and the inflection point may appear in 2023. We estimate the average market value of pig enterprises with the expected slaughter volume in 2022, Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) 5956 yuan, Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) 5323 yuan, Jiangxi Zhengbang Technology Co.Ltd(002157) 1581 yuan, Tech-Bank Food Co.Ltd(002124) 2480 yuan and COFCO Jiakang 2329 yuan. The valuation of mainstream listed pig enterprises is relatively low, so it is recommended to pay active attention.
The price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.5% on a weekly basis, and the price of yellow feather increased on a weekly basis.
① the price of white feather chicken products increased by 0.5% on a weekly basis. On Friday, the price of white feather chicken products was 9780 yuan / ton, up 0.5% week on week. In 2021, there were 1.2462 million sets of ancestral chicken seedlings in China, with a year-on-year increase of 24.3%. The sales volume of parental chicken seedlings was 63.6572 million sets, with a year-on-year increase of 6%. We maintain our previous judgment that the ancestral renewal of white feather broilers will be 1 million units in 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, and the price of white feather broilers is expected to stabilize and recover in 2022; In 2021, the national ancestral renewal volume increased significantly year-on-year, and the chicken price may decline in 2023. ② Yellow feather chicken prices rose week on week. Affected by covid-19 epidemic, increased production capacity and other factors, the loss degree of yellow feather broiler industry in 2020 is second only to that in 2013 impacted by the “human infection h7n9 epidemic”, and the stock in the ancestors began to decline from the middle of 2020. From 2020 to 21, the yellow feather chicken industry suffered an overall loss, and the industry continued to lose production capacity. The price of yellow feather chicken is expected to rise moderately in 2022. As of February 11, the average price of yellow feather broiler fast big chicken was 7 yuan / kg, down 12.1% month on week and 2.6% year-on-year; The average price of medium speed chicken was 7.35 yuan / kg, down 13.0% on a week-on-week basis and up 0.6% year-on-year; The average price of native chicken was 8.21 yuan / kg, down 11.9% month on week and 5.4% year-on-year; Black bone chicken was 7.7 yuan / kg, down 2.4% month on week and 10.5% year-on-year.
The commercialization of GM is gradually approaching, and we continue to pay attention to the leader of seed industry.
The commercialization of genetically modified crops is gradually approaching. The Ministry of agriculture and rural areas has carried out industrialization pilot projects for herbicide resistant genetically modified soybeans and insect resistant and herbicide resistant genetically modified maize that have obtained production and application safety certificates. At present, good progress has been made: first, the pilot genetically modified varieties have excellent characteristics and obvious advantages of cost saving and efficiency increasing. The weeding effect of genetically modified soybeans is more than 95%, which can reduce the weeding cost by 50%, Increase production by 12%; The control effect of transgenic maize on Spodoptera meadowi can reach 95%, which greatly reduces the cost of pest control; At the same time, the content of mycotoxin in transgenic maize grain is low and the quality is good; Second, the pilot genetically modified soybeans and corn have no adverse impact on the production environment. Planting GM maize reduces pesticide use and promotes biodiversity. We judge the impact as follows: I) GM corn seeds may be sold in the second half of 2023. The draft of amendments to the regulations of four departments, including the measures for the examination and approval of major crop varieties, may be approved at the beginning of this year. According to the revised draft, if it is within the scope of suitable planting area, it is only necessary to conduct one-year productive experiment. Therefore, seed production can be carried out as soon as 2023, and sales will begin in the second half of 2023. II) the corn seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. The promotion area of genetically modified maize in China is expected to reach 400-500 million mu. If the gene patent fee of 10 yuan per mu can correspond to a revenue of 4-5 billion yuan, the maize seed industry is expected to usher in capacity expansion. III) seed industry leaders are expected to fully benefit.
The February report of the U.S. Department of Agriculture announced that the predicted value of global corn and soybean stock consumption ratio decreased month on month.
① the price of corn may remain relatively high in 2022. The February supply and demand report of the US Department of agriculture predicted that the global corn stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.3%, 0.4 percentage points lower than that in 20 / 21 and 0.1 percentage points lower than that in January, the lowest since 16 / 17. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in February: the national corn balance in 2021 / 22 was 4.83 million tons, which was the same as the predicted value in January and decreased by 3.23 million tons compared with 2020 / 21. In the year of 21 / 22, China’s corn supply and demand is in a tight balance. We expect that the corn price may remain relatively high in 2022. ② Soybean and soybean meal prices may remain relatively high in 2022. USDA’s February supply and demand report predicted that the global soybean stock consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 25.1%, down 2.6 percentage points compared with that in 20 / 21 and 0.3 percentage points compared with the predicted value in January, which was at the low level since 16 / 17; The global soybean meal inventory consumption ratio in 2021 / 22 was 5.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from 20 / 21, up 0.1 percentage points from the forecast value in January, and still at the lowest level since 11 / 12. According to the prediction of the market early warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas of China in February: the national soybean balance in 2021 / 22 was 170000 tons, which was the same as the predicted value in January and decreased by 5.89 million tons compared with that in 20 / 21. We expect soybean and soybean meal prices to remain high in 2022.
Risk tips
Non plague out of control; Prices fell more than expected.
