Key investment points:
Views of this month: 1) medical beauty: the high outlook of the compliance market continues, and the concentration of industry leaders is expected to continue to improve. Since the joint law enforcement of eight ministries and commissions in June last year, the industry policy supervision has gradually become stricter, which has aroused the market’s concern about the prosperity of the industry. However, we have always stressed that stricter supervision will accelerate the liquidation of long tail enterprises, improve the concentration of head enterprises, and ensure that compliant pharmaceutical and machinery manufacturers and legal compliance institutions will have strong performance certainty, Continue to recommend Imeik Technology Development Co.Ltd(300896) (300896. SZ) and Bloomage Biotechnology Corporation Limited(688363) (688363. SH) compliant upstream pharmaceutical and mechanical faucets; 2) Cosmetics: expected in the second half of the year β The market is optimistic about the collectivization development of leading Chinese brands in the medium and long term. From the short-term perspective, under the preheating of the new regulations on cosmetics in the second half of last year, the longer product filing cycle led to a significant decline in the growth rate of the industry. We believe that may this year will be a key time window for the cosmetics industry in the short term. It is expected that the cosmetics industry β The logic will be strengthened in the second half of this year, and continue to recommend the domestic leading Yunnan Botanee Bio-Technology Group Co.Ltd(300957) (300957. SZ) of sensitive muscle track and Proya Cosmetics Co.Ltd(603605) (603605. SH) with the increased proportion of online direct sales; 3) Duty free: the passenger flow in Hainan has gradually warmed up, and the tax-free sales on outlying islands are hot. During the Spring Festival, the passenger volume of Meilan Airport in Haikou and Fenghuang airport in Sanya increased year-on-year, and the passenger flow in Hainan gradually warmed up. We expect that the sales of duty-free market in Hainan will increase steadily in the first quarter. However, considering the impact of sporadic outbreak of the epidemic and the Winter Olympic games, some passenger flow in the first quarter of this year will lag to the second quarter, which is expected to be in Qingming During the two key time windows such as may day, the off Island duty-free market will usher in an obvious high growth with the recovery of passenger flow. At that time, the proportion of offline duty-free business will gradually rise to improve the comprehensive gross profit margin of duty-free merchants, and continue to recommend the leader of duty-free industry China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) (601888. SH); 4) Catering: the medium and long-term chain development trend remains unchanged. In the two years since the outbreak of the epidemic, the passenger flow of catering stores has been limited, but in essence, the industry continues to clear. The head catering enterprises focus on the optimization of store location, digital construction, supply chain construction, internal assessment and other aspects. The strategic positioning is becoming clearer. With the general trend of increasing the chain rate of the catering industry, we are optimistic about the long-term development of chain catering and catering supply chain enterprises, It is suggested to focus on Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215. SZ) at the b-end of catering service; 5) Hotel / Tourism: the overall performance of the tourism market during the Spring Festival holiday is flat, and the structural differentiation is the highlight. During the Spring Festival, the epidemic situation recurred in scattered spots, the residents’ willingness to travel decreased, and the overall performance of the tourism market was flat. However, from the category dimension of tourism travel, local / peripheral tourism was still dominant during the Spring Festival holiday, and ice and snow tourism ushered in a new upsurge. In addition, under the combination of local new year and returning home for the new year, the hotel market increased steadily during the Spring Festival, Themed and featured resort hotels are sought after, and continue to recommend Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258. SH) that goes hand in hand with the medium and high-end market. It is suggested to pay attention to Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) (600754. SH) with prominent improvement results of integrated management, rich brand matrix and sufficient medium and high-end reserves.
Market review: in January 2022, the changes of beauty care / social services / trade retail index were -6.47pct / -0.50pct / + 1.12pct compared with CSI 300 index respectively. By the end of January 2022, the median valuation of social service industry was 52.09 times, which was 55.21% of the historical quantile since 2011. The median valuation of commercial retail industry was 27.44 times, which was 38.54% of the historical quantile since 2011.
Risk warning: macroeconomic fluctuation risk; Risk of recurrent outbreaks; Risk that the policy launch time is less than expected; The risk of intensified industry competition; New product R & D is less than expected risk; Risk of food safety problems; Risk that the growth rate of store expansion is lower than expected
