Market review last week:
Last week (02.07-02.11), the social service sector (Shenwan) rose 4.88%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.78%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.42%. The social service sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.86 percentage points last week, ranking 14th among the weekly increases and decreases of Shenwan’s 35 primary sub industries.
Core view:
According to the preliminary statistics released by the central bank on February 10, the increment of social financing scale in January 2022 was 6.17 trillion yuan, 984.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year. At the end of January 2022, the stock of social financing scale was 320.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%. From the data, social finance in January was 6.17 trillion yuan a month, exceeding market expectations. The main reason was the obvious growth of enterprise loans and local special bonds, showing the trend of credit easing at both ends of enterprises and local governments under “steady growth”.
In terms of overall tourism travel across the country, according to the statistics of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, the total number of Chinese tourism trips during the Spring Festival holiday (January 31 – February 6) was 251 million, which recovered to 73.9% in the same period in 2019 according to the comparable caliber; China’s tourism revenue reached 289.198 billion yuan, recovering to 56.3% in the same period in 2019 according to comparable standards. In the second half of 2021, affected by the epidemic, the recovery process of the number of tourists was blocked. In 2022, with the epidemic situation gradually controlled, the recovery degree of the Spring Festival rebounded. In Hainan, during the Spring Festival, the hotness of hotels and tourism continued. The number of passengers leaving Sanya Phoenix Airport from January 30 to February 5 increased by 35.80% year-on-year in 2021, and the year-on-year growth rate of daily passengers transported by Haikou Meilan Airport from February 1 to February 6 remained above 40%. Affected by the Winter Olympic Games, the popularity of ice and snow tourism is rising. According to the “2022 Spring Festival holiday travel consumption data report” released by Tongcheng travel, the order volume of national ice and snow scenic spots during the Spring Festival this year increased by 68% compared with the same period last year. At present, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the prosperity of tourism, duty-free and other industries continues to rise, the strong support of national policies and the action of loose credit, tourism and related industries such as duty-free and hotels are at the starting point of the general trend of recovery, and will show a more brilliant performance driven by the recovery of industry prosperity and the continuous improvement of their own product and brand strength.
Company announcement and industry information:
Utour Group Co.Ltd(002707) : through centralized bidding, the company has reduced the number of repurchased shares by 654100 shares, accounting for 0.0722% of the total share capital of the company, and the total amount of funds obtained from the reduction is 4140356.00 yuan; Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) : Hangzhou Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) Valley, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, can apply for the preferential tax policy of levying enterprise income tax at a reduced tax rate of 15% within three years after receiving the certificate of high tech enterprise.
Investment suggestions:
Duty free industry: we are optimistic about the relatively clear recovery trend of the duty-free industry supported by the recovery of passenger flow. Related targets are China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) which is expected to show a recovery in revenue and profit after the recovery of passenger flow.
Hotel Industry: the upgrading of industry structure and chain trend are obvious, the brand, scale and management advantages of leading hotel groups are obvious, and there is good growth space in the future. Related targets include leading enterprises Shanghai Jin Jiang International Hotels Co.Ltd(600754) , Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) , and Huazhu group.
Catering and Tourism: the recovery of the industry under the epidemic is under short-term pressure, and the trend of industry chain is obvious. Pay attention to the expansion and business performance of leading catering enterprises. There are targets related to seafloor feeding and fishing.
Risk tips:
Repeated epidemic impact; Macroeconomic fluctuations; Policy supervision risk.
