Industry core view:
In the short term, gold bullion investment was stimulated by the release of delayed sexual marriage, the popularity of ancient gold under the national tide culture and the stable return of gold price. During the Spring Festival holiday, the national gold sales increased strongly, with a year-on-year increase of + 13%; In the long run, as gold jewelry has the attributes of investment, gift giving and daily consumption, the long-term steady rise of gold price, the popularity of "pleasing oneself" consumption in the beauty era, and the improvement of the penetration rate of many scenes such as gift giving on holidays and anniversaries will drive the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years, leading jewelry enterprises have bucked the trend and opened stores by seizing channels To seize the market by upgrading brands and developing new products, we continue to be optimistic about the leading enterprises of gold and jewelry.
Key investment points:
The gold jewelry industry continues to enjoy a high boom. During the Spring Festival holiday, the national gold consumption demand is strong, and the growth of online K-gold jewelry is strong. Under the influence of factors such as the gradual release of wedding leave suppressed by the previous epidemic, the stabilization of gold price after falling, "pleasing oneself" consumption and national tide culture, the gold jewelry industry continued to be booming. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, the monthly retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry commodities have recovered strongly since July 2020, and the year-on-year growth rate almost outperformed the zero growth rate of the society. In 2021, the retail sales of gold, silver and jewelry increased by + 29.8% year-on-year, outperforming the zero growth rate of the society by 17.3 PCT. During the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the national gold consumption also showed strong performance. According to the data of China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) Association, during the Spring Festival in 2022, the national gold consumption increased by 13% year-on-year, and the gold jewelry consumption in first tier cities such as Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by more than 15% year-on-year. From the online data, K-gold jewelry on Taoxi platform has maintained a strong growth since 2021q4, with + 26% / + 61% / + 28% / + 100% month by month.
The increase of penetration rate in multiple scenarios such as marriage, investment, gift giving and daily consumption will drive the further expansion of the industry. ① From the perspective of price, the price of gold has stabilized for more than a year after falling in the second half of 2020, and the escalation of geopolitical friction is expected to stimulate the upward shock of gold; ② From the perspective of quantity, gold jewelry has the attributes of marriage, investment, gift giving and daily consumption. Gold has been favored by investors as an anti inflation tool for a long time, while the proportion of gift giving on holidays and "pleasing oneself" consumption continues to increase, which will promote the expansion of the scale of gold jewelry industry from the perspective of quantity.
Bibcock bucked the trend and opened stores to seize channels, actively explore categories and improve market share. ① Expanding channels: the epidemic has promoted the reshuffle of the gold and jewelry industry, and the head gold and jewelry enterprises have accelerated the opening of stores. Chow Tai Fook (mainland) has a net opening of 150 / 259 / 366 / 432 stores in Q1-Q4 in 2021, and Liufu group (mainland) has a net opening of 45 / 85 / 149 / 155 stores in Q1-Q4 in 2021; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) in 2021, q1-q3 opened 2 / 66 / 100 stores respectively. Following Chow Tai Fook / Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) launched the provincial representative model in the second half of 2021 to accelerate the opening of stores and seize the market. ② Expanding categories: under the national tide culture, gold jewelry enterprises comply with the trend, actively innovate products, and launch categories such as ancient Fajin and zodiac gold, which are sought after by consumers.
Investment suggestion: the high outlook of the gold jewelry industry continues. In the long run, gold is still favored by investors as an anti inflation tool, and the improvement of multi scenario penetration of gold jewelry is expected to promote the further expansion of the industry. During the epidemic period, leading enterprises opened stores against the trend, seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and continued to be optimistic about the leading enterprises of gold and jewelry with increased share.
Risk factors
