One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 6.85%, 7.68 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.82%, and the gem index fell 5.59%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell by 3.09%, wind power fell by 4.21% and photovoltaic fell by 6.79%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The price game in the industrial chain continues. Under the background of booming demand, the upstream price continues to rebound, and the component price has also increased. The state continued to introduce policies to promote the construction of photovoltaic projects, adding to the high carbon price in Europe, and the demand for new energy construction continued to increase. According to solarzoom statistics, under the background of the recovery of downstream demand and positive goods preparation, the price of upstream silicon material / silicon wafer / battery wafer continued to rebound this week; According to Zhihui photovoltaic statistics, on February 10, the lowest price, highest price and average price (bid opening price of 1.807 ~ 1.985 yuan / W, average price of 1.865 yuan / W) of the 2022 photovoltaic module centralized procurement project (the first batch) of Shanxi International Energy Group were higher than those of other projects opened in January (bid opening price of 1.706 ~ 1.955 yuan / W, average price of 1.840 yuan / W).
2. The expectation of interest rate increase + economic downward pressure + the price game of the industrial chain continues, and the valuation of the photovoltaic sector is under pressure in the short term. U.S. CPI rose faster than expected and increased interest rate expectations, adding to the increased downward pressure on the economy and the increase in risk-free return, putting pressure on the valuation of high valuation assets; In addition, the price game of crystalline silicon industry chain continues to affect the short-term demand expectation and profitability repair. Under the comprehensive influence of external environment and internal game, the valuation of photovoltaic sector is under short-term pressure.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. Although the short-term valuation is under pressure, with the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the price of the industrial chain is expected to decline, superimposing the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), and the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities, Focus on recommending the leading Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) with poor expectations in the market. (2) The price of some auxiliary materials may rise in 2022q1 due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, structural supply and demand shortage and other factors. It is recommended to focus on Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) and pay attention to Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) with rapid development. (4) In the process of module price decline, overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first. It is recommended that the whole county promote distributed leading Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China’s sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW), When the bidding price drops rapidly, if the enterprise wants to maintain its profitability, it needs to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce expenditure (localization of parts and components and cost reduction); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China’s offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. Investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations. Under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) and pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Under the domestic substitution logic, focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the profit recovery logic, focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) and Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates.
