This week’s opinion update:
Adhere to the main line of “steady growth”: the people’s Bank of China released financial statistics in January, adding 6.17 trillion yuan of social finance, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. “Credit easing” is already on the way, “steady growth” policy is gradually being implemented, and infrastructure is expected to continue to develop. The investment value of construction (infrastructure central enterprises, local state-owned enterprises, design units, etc.) and building materials (cement, pipe network, etc.) with strong correlation with “steady growth” is highlighted again. We emphasize that we should focus on the public raised REITs of infrastructure as one of the key points of “wide credit”: 1) as an equity financing tool, public raised REITs of infrastructure provide the marginal increment of infrastructure funds in the form of revitalizing stock assets; 2) Guide project investors to expect that REITs can reduce the debt pressure of investors and accelerate the recovery of their equity funds in the long run.
When the marginal improvement of real estate policy is in progress: 1) the loans related to indemnificatory rental housing are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans; 2) The national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing were formulated and promulgated recently, and the supervision of pre-sale funds is “key quota supervision”. Judge that the above policies will improve the capital pressure of real estate developers; We emphasize that under the background of “pre-sale fund management” and “guaranteed delivery”, the completion rate of the whole year will probably maintain growth. Float glass sector is the optimal configuration direction for the completion link; After the resumption of work after the festival, local glass enterprises frequently sent price increase letters, and the “price rise tide” of the industry has arrived as scheduled.
Steady progress has been made in energy conservation and emission reduction, benefiting the demand for new energy-saving materials: the national development and Reform Commission and other four departments have issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 Edition), which suggests the use of energy-saving thermal insulation materials as one of the energy-saving schemes in many fields, and firmly optimistic about the downstream application and expansion of ceramic fiber.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building Materials Index + 6.62%, of which other structural materials increased the most (12.18%) and other special materials increased the least (+ 2.31%); This week, CITIC construction index was + 7.32%, with the largest increase (+ 11.74%) in architectural design and service sector and the smallest increase (+ 1.52%) in architectural decoration sector; This week, the capital construction public offering REITs sector increased by an average of 8.22% (arithmetic average), of which CCB Beijing Centergate Technologies (Holding) Co.Ltd(000931) REIT rose the most (+ 16.11%), and Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT rose the least (+ 0.53%).
High frequency data (2.4-2.11): cement: po42 5. The average price of cement was 517 yuan / ton, down 0.55% month on month; The storage capacity ratio was 66.63%, up 4.44 PCT month on month. Glass: the spot price of glass was 2096 yuan / ton, up 1.90% month on month; The inventory was 48.1 million heavy boxes, an increase of 35.20% month on month. The average price of 3.2mm and 2mm photovoltaic glass is 25 yuan / m2 and 19.20 yuan / m2 respectively, which is the same month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn is 6400 yuan / ton, which is the same month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 11250 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 8.16%.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) ); Focus on {6006} and Shandong Gold Phoenix Co.Ltd(603586) for cement infrastructure enterprises; The end of the policy on consumption of building materials has been realized (it is suggested to pay attention to: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: capital construction public offering REITs brings revaluation of sector value (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) ); Be optimistic about the equipment leasing track (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) ); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) ).
Preferred portfolio: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.6xpb, revaluation of stock operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.6xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (16xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (11xpe, the performance elasticity of float glass and the valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (22xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
