Core view
This week’s topic: from the perspective of new houses and second-hand houses, the source of demand for dismantling furniture: from the perspective of new houses, the delivery of rough houses in China is still the mainstream, and we believe that the increase of hardcover penetration may still squeeze China’s C-end channels. In the short term, the increase rate of hardcover penetration may be slowed down by factors such as the pressure of real estate sales and the exposure of credit risk of real estate enterprises and the reduction of willingness of furniture enterprises to undertake hardcover projects. In the long run, due to the low matching rate of finished furniture and the gradual dominance of second-hand housing in real estate transactions, the squeeze on the C-end channel of furniture is still limited. From the perspective of stock housing, at present, the sales of second-hand housing in China’s first tier cities has become the leading factor in real estate transactions, and the demand for furniture from second-hand housing has gradually increased. At the same time, according to our calculation, it is expected that by 2030, the proportion of the renovation demand of stock houses in the overall household consumption demand is expected to exceed 50%. According to the relevant research of airy consulting, the consumption motivation of household decoration of stock houses in China has gradually emerged. At the same time, “renting houses also needs decoration” or provide new demand increment for furniture consumption. Therefore, we believe that the potential market for furniture consumption corresponding to second-hand housing and stock housing is broad, and China’s furniture consumption demand is resilient. It is recommended to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) .
Investment strategy in 2022: seek “progress” in “change” and take the lead in subdividing leaders. Furniture: focus on domestic market channel reform opportunities. Among them, it is recommended to pay attention to Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) , Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Zbom Home Collection Co.Ltd(603801) , Goldenhome Living Co.Ltd(603180) for customized furniture; For finished furniture, it is suggested to pay attention to Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) , etc. Papermaking, packaging and printing: subdivide the track pattern and optimize the strong. It is recommended to pay attention to Shandong Sun Paper Co.Ltd(002078) , Shanying International Holdings Co.Ltd(600567) , Xianhe Co.Ltd(603733) , Quzhou Wuzhou Special Paper Co.Ltd(605007) , Chongqing Baiya Sanitary Products Co.Ltd(003006) , Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) , etc. Entertainment and jewelry sector: the consumption upgrading continues and the prosperity rises. It is recommended to pay attention to Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc(603899) and Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) . Retail of home building materials: professional home building materials stores are still dominant, and digital and high-frequency consumption empowerment have become the mainstream. It is suggested to pay attention to Easyhome New Retail Group Corporation Limited(000785) , Red Star Macalline Group Corporation Ltd(601828) leading in digital transformation. Textile and clothing: the trend of national fashion continues, and there are good opportunities for sports shoes and children’s wear. It is suggested to pay attention to Anta sports, Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) , Zhejiang Semir Garment Co.Ltd(002563) , Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) , Bosideng, etc.
Market review this week: this week, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the light industry manufacturing industry rose 1.1%, slightly underperforming the market, and the textile and garment industry rose 2.67%, slightly underperforming the market. Among them, the paper sector rose 2.12%, the packaging and printing sector rose 1.46%, the home sector rose 0.85%, the entertainment light industry sector rose 1.52%, and other light industry sectors fell 1.38%. The textile manufacturing sector rose 2.12%, and the clothing and home textile sector rose 2.34%. The top three gainers of light manufacturing industry this week are Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) (23.85%), Beijing Kingee Culture Development Co.Ltd(002721) (23.26%), Profit Cultural & Creative Group Co.Ltd(300640) (21.35%); The top three declines were Jiangsu Jinling Sports Equipment Co.Ltd(300651) (- 12.75%), innovation shares (- 11.46%) and Guangdong Piano Customized Furniture Co.Ltd(002853) (- 10.88%). The top three increases in the textile and garment industry were Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (31.56%), Huasi Holding Company Limited(002494) (19.25%) and St modern (16.33%); The top three declines were * ST global (- 14.75%), hinur (- 9.78%) and Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) (- 9.27%).
Risk warning: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply; Risk of sluggish terminal demand; Exchange rate fluctuation risk.
