Industry core view:
Last week, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 5.23%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.21 percentage points. From the social zero data released by the Bureau of statistics, the social zero in December was + 1.7% year-on-year. Affected by the sporadic outbreak of the epidemic in China, the growth rate was 2.2 PCT lower than that in November. We believe that in the short term, the epidemic will counterattack and the consumer market will face uncertainty. However, with the more accurate and effective epidemic prevention and control and the gradual implementation of the “steady growth” economic policy, China’s consumption is expected to return to a stable growth trend in the future. Suggestions: ① gold jewelry: in the short term, the delayed marriage just needs to be released, the gold price is stable, stimulating the consumption of gold jewelry, and the sales of gold jewelry increase strongly during the Spring Festival holiday; In the long run, the continuous rise of gold price and the increase of penetration rate in daily consumption, gift giving, investment and other scenarios have driven the steady expansion of the industry scale. In addition, the epidemic has accelerated the industry integration in the past two years. Jewelry leading enterprises have actively seized the market by seizing channels, upgrading brands and developing new products, and are optimistic about gold jewelry leading enterprises; ② Mother and baby: since the implementation of the three child policy, governments across the country have issued a number of birth incentive measures. It is expected that the birth rate is expected to boost in the future with the implementation of more relevant supporting measures and policies. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of mother and baby racing track in advance; ③ Cosmetics & Medical Beauty: under the beauty economy, there is a strong demand for cosmetics and medical beauty. Recently, a number of relevant regulations on cosmetics and medical beauty have been issued, and the industry is facing a reshuffle, which will benefit the leading companies of compliant cosmetics and medical beauty.
Key investment points:
Market review: last week (February 7-february 13), the Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.02%, the Shenwan retail trade index rose 5.23%, and the retail trade index outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.21 percentage points, ranking 13th in the rise and fall of Shenwan 31 primary industry indexes. Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai Composite Index has fallen by 4.86% and the commercial retail index has fallen by 1.61%. The Shenwan commercial retail index has outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.25 percentage points, ranking 11th among the 31 primary sub industries of Shenwan.
Industry data: ① social zero data: in December 2021, China’s total retail sales of social consumer goods were + 1.7% year-on-year, with an average of + 3.1% in two years, 2.2 PCT lower than the growth rate in November 2021. Among the sub categories, the growth rate of retail sales of gold, silver, jewelry and cosmetics of units above the quota fell, with a year-on-year increase of – 0.20% and + 2.50% respectively. ② Raw material price data: last week, gold rose $50.67 to $1858.53 / oz, and silver rose $1.06 to $23.57 / oz. ③ E-commerce data: in January 2022, the turnover of Taoxi platform cosmetics (including beauty and skin care and color makeup) was 13.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 28%, and the turnover of jewelry was 8.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9%. In terms of cosmetics, the overall performance of Chinese and foreign brands was low in January, while Chinese brands love fire and Mao Geping performed better; In terms of jewelry, domestic, foreign and Hong Kong brands all have ups and downs, and domestic brands design circles, Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co.Ltd(002574) and Caibai perform better.
Important announcements of listed companies: Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) , Shanghai Yuyuan Tourist Mart (Group) Co.Ltd(600655) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) and Hangzhou Haoyue Personal Care Co.Ltd(605009) release the announcement of repurchase progress; China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) reduction of major shareholders.
Important events in the industry: ① during the Spring Festival holiday, the national gold consumption increased by 13% year-on-year, and the gold jewelry consumption in first tier cities increased by more than 15% year-on-year; ② New low in recent 7 years! Imported beauty “winter”.
Risk factors
