Recently, the regulatory policies for pre-sale funds in many cities have been reasonably corrected to benefit the cash flow of real estate enterprises, especially private enterprises. Recently, the regulatory policies of pre-sale funds in Shijiazhuang, Yantai, Chengdu and other cities have been appropriately relaxed. After returning to the normal pre-sale fund supervision, enterprises can withdraw funds according to the construction rhythm and return the part beyond the supervision. In the short term, it will improve the cash flow of all real estate enterprises, but it is more beneficial to private enterprises. However, even if the regulatory policy on pre-sale funds is relaxed and the demand side is depressed, real estate enterprises still face the problem that the amount of follow-up pre-sale funds can be withdrawn is too small. The current bond market also faces the problem of unable to recover financing. Therefore, we believe that the current round of policy relaxation is far from over, and it is expected that the follow-up efforts will continue to be strengthened until the industry fundamentals rise from the bottom to reach the three-level resonant upward state of policy, industry and enterprise fundamentals.
Market review: the increase is in the front stage, 3.03 percentage points ahead of the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 3.9%, 3.03 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking 15th among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. This week, 116 stocks rose and 24 stocks fell. (this week in the report refers to the week of 2.5-2.11).
The transaction area of new houses this week was 1.877 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 1.87 million square meters. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the data in some cities are vacant during the Spring Festival, and the year-on-year data is low. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in the sample first tier cities was 357000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 69.6%; The sample of second tier cities was 1028000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 62.8%; The sample third tier cities were 492000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 61.6%. Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in 12 key cities this week totaled 580000 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 66.2%. Like the new house data, the month on month data of this week was abnormally high due to the vacancy of data in some cities during the Spring Festival holiday. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in sample first tier cities this week was 170000 square meters; The sample of second tier cities is 352000 m3; The sample third tier cities are 57000 square meters. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 4.938 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 48.3%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 1.39 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 56.7%; The sample of second tier cities was 2.899 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 40.4%; The sample third tier cities were 649000 square meters, a year-on-year increase of – 40.4%. Domestic credit bonds of key companies: no new bonds have been issued for two consecutive weeks. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, the total circulation this week (2.7-2.13) was 0, the total repayment was 4.586 billion yuan, and the net financing was -4.586 billion yuan.
Financing related indicators: in January, the medium and long-term loans of new residents increased month on month, and the mortgage interest rate decreased by 8bp month on month. In January 2022, 742.4 billion yuan of medium – and long-term loans were added to households, an increase of 108.7% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 21.4%. In January 2022, the one-year LPR was 3.70%, down 10bp month on month, and the five-year LPR was 4.60%, down 5bp month on month. According to the shell Research Institute, in January 2022, the average interest rate of the first house loan in 103 key cities in China was 5.56%, down 8bp month on month, and the average interest rate of the second house loan in China was 5.84%, down 8bp month on month.
Investment suggestion: the fundamentals are still at the bottom, but the direction of policy easing is clear, and the “overweight” rating is given to the real estate development sector. The strength of this round of policies is still insufficient. We expect more policies to be good on the way, and the main direction is to improve the capital and demand side of enterprises. “Continued favorable policies – the bottom of the industry fundamentals is expected to rise later – state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition, and the gross profit margin of land acquisition is repaired” is the main logic of 2022, reaching the three-level resonance of fundamentals, industries and enterprises. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to real estate enterprises, including A-Shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Vanke A, Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang.
Risk tips: the impact of the epidemic is higher than expected, sales are lower than expected, the strength of real estate tax policy is higher than expected, and the credit default of real estate enterprises and its impact spread risk.
