The bank index continued its strong performance, and North-South funds have been allocated to the bank sector on a large scale since the beginning of the year. This week, the A-share banking index rose 6.1%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 5.28pct, ranking 10th / 30th in all sectors; The subject matter of listed banks closed up comprehensively, with industrial (+ 10.1%), Qilu (+ 8.3%), Xiamen (+ 8.2%), Sunong (+ 8.2%) and Ping An (+ 8.0%) among the top gainers. Since the beginning of the year, the bank index has continued to rise and recorded good absolute and relative returns. As of the close of this week, the bank index has broken through the upper edge of the box shock range in the second half of 2021. Meanwhile, the turnover of the banking sector increased significantly. Since the beginning of the year, the average daily turnover of the sector has reached 21.537 billion yuan, a significant increase of 39.2% over the average daily level in December last year.
It is noteworthy that the industries with the highest increase in North-South capital holdings this week and since the beginning of the year are banks: North-South capital has greatly increased its position in the banking sector since the beginning of the year. This week, the market value of the banking sector has further increased by 20.799 billion yuan, and the position proportion has increased by 0.81 PCT to 8.91% compared with last week. China Merchants Bank (+ 2.389 billion yuan), Societe Generale (+ 1.45 billion yuan) and Bank of Communications (+ 374 million yuan), ICBC (+ 361 million yuan), Bank of China (+ 335 million yuan), etc., mainly state-owned banks with good high-quality shares and credit supply situation; Since the beginning of the year, China Merchants Bank (+ 8.702 billion yuan), Societe Generale (+ 2.910 billion yuan), Ping An (+ 1.985 billion yuan), Jiangsu (+ 1.351 billion yuan), Ningbo (+ 1.035 billion yuan), postal savings (+ 932 million yuan), etc. have increased their holdings more. The overall holdings of more targets comply with our three main lines of stock recommendation, namely ① high-quality joint-stock banks with obvious impact from real estate in the early stage ② Local corporate banks in high-quality regions such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and ③ state-owned banks that play the role of “head geese” in credit supply. The bank sector also has the largest holdings of southbound funds this week and since the beginning of the year. At present, the proportion of H-share bank positions has increased by 0.60pct to 20.09% compared with last week. Since the beginning of the year, more holdings include bank of China Hong Kong (this week + 278 million yuan, since the beginning of the year + 1087 million yuan), Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) (this week + 27 million yuan, since the beginning of the year + 642 million yuan), HSBC Holdings (this week + 459 million yuan), etc. At this stage, the fundamentals of the banking sector are stable and the dividend yield and valuation cost performance are high. The interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is expected to boost the asset side yield of some Hong Kong stock banks. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the H-share banking sector.
In the first week after the festival, the positive factors supporting the strength of the banking sector were further strengthened. In the last weekly report, we proposed that the fundamentals are supported and the “wide credit” is still in the way. In addition, the valuation and institutional position ratio at this stage are still relatively low, so we continue to be optimistic about the banking sector. Based on the marginal changes in fundamentals and trading in the first week after the festival, these positive factors are being further strengthened. In addition to the capital flow mentioned above, it is also reflected in:
1) the financial data in January exceeded expectations, the market expected the “wide credit” policy to be further overweight, and the performance of the banking sector was sustainable. This week, the central bank released financial data “ahead of schedule”. In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion, the credit increment hit a record high, and the “good start” of credit supply boosted market confidence. We also see that there are still some structural problems behind the higher than expected total amount, and the market is looking forward to the further increase of the “wide credit” policy. In the next stage, “wide credit” will continue to make efforts, which will help the market form continuous expectations.
2) multiple data cross confirms that the fundamentals of listed banks are stable and solid, and high-quality banks are expected to be “strong and strong”. This week, the CBRC released the main regulatory indicators of 4q21 banking industry. The overall profit growth of commercial banks continued to increase quarter on quarter, and the comprehensive performance of state-owned banks exceeded expectations. In combination with the previous performance express of 19 listed banks, the overall operating performance of listed banks in 2021 was stable and good, and the certainty of “strong and strong” of high-quality banks was further enhanced. Listed banks will release their annual reports from March to April, while the credit “made a good start” and the capital interest rate fell to a low level, which also makes the year-on-year growth rate of 1q revenue expected to increase, which will form a good support for the stock price.
3) take multiple measures to repair the real estate financing situation and mitigate the risk factors in stages. This week, the regulatory authorities issued a notice to clarify that the loans related to affordable rental housing projects will not be included in the concentration management of real estate loans. In addition, according to the 21st Century Business Herald, real estate development loans in January increased by about 200 billion yuan on average compared with the fourth quarter of last year. With the further introduction of the stability maintenance policy, the marginal real estate financing situation has warmed up, and the relevant risks have been mitigated in stages.
Risk warning: the economic growth rate is lower than expected; Real estate risk situation disturbance.
