Key investment points:
Investment suggestions: 1) complete vehicles and parts: in December 2021, China’s automobile sales volume was 2.786 million, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.6%. In 2021, the annual automobile sales volume was 26.275 million, with a year-on-year increase of 3.8%. With the gradual easing of the shortage of automobile chips and the Spring Festival Promotion, it is expected that the automobile production and sales volume will further increase in the first quarter of 2022. It is suggested to pay attention to independent brands. The automotive industry is in the midst of industrial transformation, in which self driving new energy is expected to become the main theme. It is expected that the penetration of intelligent vehicles is expected to accelerate in 2022. It is suggested to focus on suppliers of intelligent core parts such as intelligent driving and intelligent cockpit. 2) New energy vehicles: the sector has continued to decline recently. On the one hand, the adjustment of institutional funds under the expectation of interest rate increase in the United States, on the other hand, under the background of price increase of some terminal products of new energy vehicle manufacturers, the market is expected to decline the sales volume of new energy vehicles. We believe that there is no inflection point in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles at present, and in the continuous improvement of the product power of new energy vehicles Under the rich supply of high-quality models and the industrial scale effect, it is expected that the new energy vehicle industry will continue to develop well. The short-term game atmosphere of individual stocks in the industrial chain is heavy, but it does not affect the long-term growth logic. It is still recommended to focus on it.
Market review: last week, the automobile (Shenwan) industry index fell 1.10%, 1.92 percentage points lower than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index. Among them, the key subdivided industries rose or fell by 0.73% for passenger cars, 1.14% for commercial vehicles and – 2.60% for auto parts. The wind new energy vehicle index fell 2.24%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.07 percentage points. Among them, the rise and fall of key sub industries in one week were – 5.66% for power battery, – 2.20% for lithium positive electrode, -5.57% for lithium negative electrode, -2.92% for lithium diaphragm and – 2.10% for electrolyte.
Industry trends: 1) Geely Automobile Group released the sales data of January, and the sales of pure electric vehicles increased by 641% year-on-year; 2) By 2025, Beijing will strive to have 2 million new energy vehicles in total; 3) The tax exemption policy for new energy vehicles is expected to be extended for the third time.
Company dynamics: 1) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) : Announcement on signing investment agreement; 2) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) : Announcement on the proposed acquisition of the equity of other shareholders of the holding subsidiary; 3) , Do-Fluoride New Materials Co.Ltd(002407) : Announcement on capital increase and share expansion of holding subsidiaries and introduction of strategic investors; 4) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) : Announcement on foreign investment and the establishment of holding subsidiaries.
Risk factors: the sales volume of vehicles is lower than expected, the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected, and the policy is lower than expected.
