Social finance data exceeded expectations, pushing up the attention of the sector, and the “steady growth” policy helped industrial metal prices
According to the social financing data released in January this week, the total scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan and RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan. Both monthly data reached a record high. At the same time, infrastructure financing such as urban investment bonds and special bonds increased significantly, which is conducive to the improvement of the attention of the industrial metal sector. At the same time, under the background of “steady growth” this year, the demand for industrial metals is expected to improve marginally. LME copper fell – 0.12% this week to close at US $9830 / ton; LME aluminum rose 4.07% to close at US $3199 / ton; LME lead rose 4.57% to close at US $2287.5/ton; LME zinc rose 1.19% to close at US $3655.5/ton; LME tin rose 1.81% to close at US $43800 / ton; LME nickel rose 1.06% to close at US $23235 / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
The rising trend of lithium carbonate remained unchanged after the festival, and the tight supply pattern remained
After the Spring Festival holiday, the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. This week, battery grade lithium carbonate rose 4% to close at 390000 yuan / ton; Industrial grade lithium carbonate rose 5.70% to close at 371000 yuan / ton. The capacity increment of lithium carbonate outside China is mainly released in the second half of this year. The tight supply pattern in the first half of this year is expected to be maintained. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) . Cobalt prices rose slightly this week, with electrolytic cobalt rising 2.37% to close at 519000 yuan / ton. The transportation dilemma in South Africa remains, and the cobalt price is expected to maintain the rise. It is recommended to pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) .
Low inventory accelerates the rise of copper and aluminum prices, and the epidemic situation in Guangxi affects the short-term supply of electrolytic aluminum
Copper on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.45% to close at 72510 yuan / ton this week; Aluminum rose 4.78% to close at 22970 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory level of copper and aluminum is low, which increases the elasticity of price rise. At the same time, the supply of electrolytic aluminum shrinks due to the sharp increase of electricity price and cost overseas. The Guangxi epidemic affects the short-term production and transportation of electrolytic aluminum in China, and the aluminum price is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the near future. Recommended concerns: Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) .
The escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine pushed up risk aversion, and gold prices rose significantly this week
This week, the situation in Russia and Ukraine continued to be tense, and the market risk aversion increased. This week, spot gold in London rose 2.82% to close at US $1858.44 / ounce, while the US dollar index rose 0.59% to close at 96.03; COMEX gold rose 2.92% to US $1842.10 per ounce this week, while Comex Silver Rose 5.01% to US $23.37 per ounce. This week, the US CPI rose 7.5% without quarterly adjustment in January, a 40 year high, exceeding market expectations. We believe that the continued high inflation data in the United States intensifies the market’s expectation of the Fed’s interest rate hike, and the gold price may remain high and volatile.
Risk tip: the Fed’s policy has changed more than expected, and the global economic recovery is less than expected.
