Weekly view:
Affordable rental housing loans are not included in the “two red lines”: on February 8, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission jointly issued a notice to clarify that the relevant loans issued by banks to affordable rental housing projects are not included in the concentration management of real estate loans, and increase the support for affordable rental housing.
In 2022, in the whole downturn cycle of the real estate industry, affordable rental housing is the key to the decline of underlying real estate investment. Affordable rental housing is not included in the centralized management, which is conducive to the real estate enterprises arranging the business to obtain more liquidity support from banks and other financial institutions. Indemnificatory rental housing is mainly distributed in the first and second tier cities in short supply. As a structural supplement at the supply level, indemnificatory rental housing helps to alleviate the pressure of insufficient supply in these cities.
The central bank emphasized meeting the reasonable housing needs of home buyers: on February 11, the central bank issued the report on the implementation of China’s monetary policy in the fourth quarter of 2021. The report once again emphasizes the positioning of “housing without speculation”. Compared with the third quarter report, the new one better meets the reasonable housing needs of home buyers and promotes the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate market.
Before the Spring Festival, real estate enterprises slowed down the supply rhythm, and consumers’ wait-and-see mood increased. Both supply and demand decreased, resulting in a significant decline in market sales data in January. In the fourth quarter, the central bank’s report was in line with the spirit of the central economic work conference, and the monetary policy on the demand side was improved. We believe that the real estate market is expected to hit the bottom and rebound under the dual forces of monetary policy and urban implementation.
We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (02.05-02.11): focus on monitoring 33 cities, with a total transaction area of 2.09 million m2, an increase of 180.9% over last week; In 2022, a total of 17.486 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 44.7%. Among them, 357000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, an increase of 27.5% over the previous week. In 2022, a total of 3.764 million square meters were sold, a total decrease of 36.4% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.013 million square meters, an increase of 337.3% over last week. In 2022, a total of 8.934 million square meters were sold, a total year-on-year decrease of 26.8%; Third tier cities sold 639000 square meters, an increase of 213.8% over last week. In 2022, a total of 4.788 million square meters were sold, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 64.5%.
Land supply (01.31-02.06): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 20000 m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 29.54 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 66.8% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.05.
In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 3174 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 2717 yuan / m2, down 41.7% month on month and 29.2% year-on-year.
Land transaction (01.31-02.06): the planned construction area of residential land in Baicheng is 10000 m3. In 2022, the cumulative transaction volume is 28.04 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 73.7%.
In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 1275 yuan / m2, a month on month decrease of 60.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 78.7%, and the overall premium rate was 0.0%. In 2022, the average floor price was 3666 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 23.2%, and the premium rate was 3.3%, a decrease of 13.0 percentage points compared with the same period last year. Land supply and land transaction data fell sharply, mainly affected by the Spring Festival holiday.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
