Key investment points
In January, the increment of social financing scale reached]6.17 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing reached a record high. By the end of January, the stock of social financing scale was 320.0 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5%; Among them, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 195.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.6%. In terms of increment, the increment of social financing scale in January was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 981.6 billion yuan over the same period last year. The social finance data in January showed a bright performance, and the total data exceeded expectations, mainly due to the continuous performance of China’s counter cyclical and cross cyclical policy regulation, and the continuous implementation of China’s reserve requirement reduction, interest rate reduction and structural support tools; At the same time, the issuance of local government special bonds is expected to increase, and the issuance time is significantly ahead of the same period last year. In the context of repeated outbreaks and tense international environment, it is expected that China’s monetary policy will remain stable and loose, and work together with an active fiscal policy.
Government bond financing is the front force, and corporate loans have warmed up. From the perspective of social finance structure, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan in January, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year. After a small increase for six consecutive months, medium and long-term loans of enterprises increased by 60 billion yuan to 2.1 trillion yuan year-on-year in January, short-term loans and bill financing of enterprises also increased significantly, and corporate financing recovered. In January, the direct financing increased by 1.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 591.9 billion yuan year-on-year. Under the background of steady growth, the finance was in the forefront, real estate financing continued to relax, and corporate bond financing and government bond financing still increased significantly year-on-year. In January, the credit increment hit a record high, and the growth structure showed “one cold and one hot”. The increment of personal credit rose moderately, and housing loans increased by 843 billion yuan, lower than the increment of 1.27 trillion yuan in the same period last year; Residents’ medium and long-term loans are weak, and the recovery of real estate demand and expected adjustment still need a long process.
The supervision of pre-sale funds of real estate enterprises may usher in unified regulations, and the current situation of tight capital flow of real estate enterprises is expected to be alleviated. It is reported that the national measures for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds of commercial housing have been formulated and issued recently. The newly formulated and issued Management Measures specify that the supervision amount of pre-sale funds is “key quota management”, which is approved by the municipal and county-level urban and rural construction departments according to the project cost contract, which can ensure the capital amount required for the completion of the project. When the funds in the account reach the supervision amount, The funds exceeding the quota can be withdrawn and used freely by real estate enterprises, which are expected to obtain more liquidity.
There is room for correction in the supervision of pre-sale funds in some cities, and the introduction of new measures is expected to make the supervision of pre-sale funds more standardized. Previously, various regions independently issued the implementation rules for the supervision and management of pre-sale funds. The implementation in some cities was too strict, and there was room for correction. The introduction of the new measures is expected to improve the situation. The original pre-sale fund management method still has some problems, such as unclear policy, high extraction base and proportion, unreasonable extraction rhythm and so on. The management measures will change the original unclear responsibility, and emphasize that the buyer’s deposit, down payment, mortgage and other forms of house purchase money should be directly deposited into the pre-sale fund supervision account, and the funds within the supervision limit in the pre-sale fund supervision account must be earmarked.
Investment suggestions: we believe that we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Baolong business, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) ; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
