Industry core view:
Last week, the basic chemical industry index rose 0.80%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.82% in the same period, and the basic chemical industry index underperformed the market by 0.02 percentage points in the same period. The petroleum and petrochemical index rose 8.02%, outperforming the market by 7.20 percentage points in the same period. Among them, Poly Union Chemical Holding Group Co.Ltd(002037) (61.04%), Fanli Digital Technology Co.Ltd(600228) (42.19%), Hunan Nanling Industry Explosive Material Co.Ltd(002096) (28.68%), Tibet Gaozheng Explosive Co.Ltd(002827) (27.75%), Jiangsu Chengxing Phosph-Chemical Co.Ltd(600078) (27.72%) ranked among the top five; The companies with the top five declines were: Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) (- 44.00%), Anhui Estone Materials Technology Co.Ltd(688733) (- 16.42%), Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) (- 15.97%), Guangdong Fangyuan Environment Co.Ltd(688148) (- 15.91%) and Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) (- 14.79%).
Key investment points:
Crude oil and petrochemical products: at present, under the influence of multiple factors such as the unexpected decline of EIA inventory, the fear of crude oil production reduction caused by overseas extremely cold weather, the uncertain geographical situation and the increase in demand for crude oil caused by enhanced global economic activities, crude oil prices continue to fluctuate and rise. On February 11, the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures was USD 93.10/barrel, up 0.86% month on month on the 7th; Brent crude oil price was US $94.44/barrel, up 1.25% month on month on the 7th. Higher crude oil prices have driven the prices of downstream chemicals to rise simultaneously. From February 8 to February 10, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) and its subsidiaries successively issued price increase letters, saying that due to the strong prices of crude oil, natural gas and other bulk raw materials and the tightening of market supply, they decided to increase the prices of some petrochemical products, including 2000 yuan per ton of TPU and 1500 yuan per ton of neopentyl glycol (NPG), The price of acrylic acid (AA) increased by 1400 yuan per ton. Considering that the current crude oil is still in a low inventory state, even if the Iranian nuclear agreement is negotiated, the release of Iranian crude oil will still take time. It is expected that the price of crude oil and downstream petrochemical products will remain high and volatile in the short term.
Polyester fiber: on February 11, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) announced that the company’s 300000 t / a intelligent and functional differentiated polyester fiber project was officially put into operation on February 10. The project relies on Dushan energy PTA phase I and phase II projects that have been put into operation by the company, and can use the waste heat of PTA device to generate electricity. At the same time, it has the advantages of raw materials and energy consumption cost for local transportation of raw materials, reverse power supply and self use. After the project is put into operation, the company’s polyester filament production capacity will reach 6.3 million tons / year. At the same time, it will be better integrated, improve the efficiency and efficiency of the company’s resource allocation, and consolidate the company’s competitiveness and influence in the polyester fiber field.
Investment suggestion: in 2022, we will mainly recommend three main investment lines: 1 Under the background of policy control, production and supply are becoming more stringent, while the demand side is still supportive in various sub sectors, such as pesticides, fertilizers and refrigerants; 2. Resource based chemical industry segments that rely on new energy and seek industrial transformation and upgrading from upstream materials, lengthen their business cycle and improve valuation, such as phosphorus chemical industry; 3. High value-added new materials with significant domestic substitution trend, such as semiconductor materials and display materials, which are key planning during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Risk factors: the international crude oil price continues to fluctuate, the epidemic situation in some parts of China repeatedly affects the risk of enterprise operation, and the price of chemicals
