Core view
Macro: US CPI continued to rise, and China’s social finance increment reached a record high. Abroad: the nominal CPI of the United States rose 7.5% in January, continuing to hit a new high since February 1982. In mid March, the expected probability of the Federal Reserve FOMC raising interest rates by 50 basis points soared from the previous 24% to 54%. China: in January, the scale of social financing increased by 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year, a record high.
Iron and steel: during the Winter Olympics, the production of steel mills was limited, and the resumption of production was repeated after the year. This week, the output of rebar decreased significantly by 4.55% month on month, and the consumption decreased significantly by 41.13% month on month. The resumption of production of steel enterprises continued this week. According to Mysteel data, the capacity utilization rate of rebar in the process of this week was 67.3%, with a significant decrease of 3.08pct month on month. Affected by the Winter Olympics, some steel mills in Tangshan and Shanxi stopped production for maintenance this week, and the progress of resumption of production after the year was repeated.
New energy metals: the global sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles has increased significantly year-on-year, and the rise is expected to continue in 2022. In terms of lithium, the price of 56.5% domestic lithium hydroxide this week was 326500 yuan / ton, a significant increase of 9.38% month on month; The price of domestic 99.5% battery grade lithium carbonate was 392000 yuan / ton, up 7.69% month on month. This week, MB standard cobalt rose slightly month on month, while Co3O4 remained flat month on month. In terms of nickel, the spot settlement price of LME nickel this week was US $23550 / ton, a slight decrease of 0.42% month on month.
Industrial metal: the aluminum supply disturbance is obvious, and the new increase of social finance supports the price of industrial metal. This week, the TC / RC of copper smelters increased slightly month on month, the global refined copper output and primary refined copper output increased slightly month on month in October, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum remained high at 89% in December, and increased slightly by 0.93pct month on month; In terms of inventory, LME copper inventory decreased significantly month on month and LME aluminum inventory increased significantly month on month; In terms of price, the current price of LME copper increased significantly by 1.67% month on month, and the current price of LME aluminum increased significantly by 2.15% month on month; In terms of profits, the profits of electrolytic aluminum in Xinjiang, Shandong and Inner Mongolia increased month on month this week.
Gold: the expectation of raising interest rates was strengthened, and the gold price increased significantly month on month. This week, Comex gold price rose significantly by 3.07% month on month, and the number of non-commercial net long positions in gold increased significantly by 8.46% month on month; This week, the yield of us 10-year Treasury bond was 1.92%, down slightly by 0.01pct month on month.
Investment proposal and investment object
Steel: for ordinary steel, it is suggested to pay attention to the listed companies with low carbon emission intensity and energy consumption per ton of steel on the one hand, and Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) (000708, buy), Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) (600507, not rated), Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) (000932, buy), and the listed companies with low Pb on the other hand, such as Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) (600808, not rated), Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) (600782, not rated), Angang Steel Company Limited(000898) (000898, not rated) Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) (000825, not rated); For special steel, it is suggested to pay attention to special material suppliers of new energy nuclear power and wind power, such as Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) (002318, buy).
New energy metals: it is recommended to pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460, not rated), Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) (002756, bought), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) (000792, not rated) and other lithium rich enterprises.
Copper: it is suggested to pay attention to Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) of mine end expansion (601899, buy); And lithium battery copper foil manufacturers: Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) (688388, not rated), Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) (600110, not rated), etc.
Aluminum: it is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) (000807, not rated), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) (601677, bought), and Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) (600219, not rated) of high-end aluminum enterprises.
Jin: it is suggested to pay attention to industry leaders Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) (601899, buy), Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) (600547, not rated), Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) (000603, not rated), etc
Risk tips
Macroeconomic growth slowed down; Price fluctuation of raw materials
