We believe that the investment strategy of the chemical industry is to invest in systematic innovation and low-cost expansion. The next industrial pattern of chemical industry depends on talent competition. The chemical industry has changed from a simple capital intensive industry to a talent and capital intensive industry. The latecomers can’t surpass the capital and can only stare at the latecomers. Therefore, the periodicity of the chemical industry becomes weaker. With effective incentives, excellent management and continuous innovation, excellent companies have created unshakable advantages in technology iteration, low cost and efficient service, and have conquered cities and occupied land in the global market.
Carbon neutralization may bring disruptive changes and opportunities to the chemical industry
Carbon neutralization has a far-reaching impact on the chemical industry. According to the statistics of npcpi, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) and basic chemical industry lead all industries in carbon emission, accounting for about 18% of the total national carbon emission, of which “process carbon emission” accounts for about 6% and “engineering carbon emission” accounts for about 12%, which is greatly affected by the 3060 carbon neutralization target. From the perspective of industry evolution, we believe that the chemical industry is expected to go through three stages in the context of carbon neutrality in the next 40 years:
The first stage is to reach the peak step by step. There are many chemical products. The energy consumption and carbon emission of each product are different, and its carbon peak requirements may be different. We understand that high energy consuming products or industries do not mean that there is no development, but will give priority to reaching the peak, and low energy consuming products or industries are expected to obtain a longer growth window;
In the second stage, the future competition will be downstream and overseas. With the carbon peak, the upstream bulk raw materials of China’s chemical industry hit the ceiling due to relatively high energy consumption, but without a large amount of new production capacity, the profit center has increased significantly. The huge cash flow obtained by large chemical enterprises may be invested in the field of downstream fine chemicals and new materials, or continue to expand the production capacity of similar products, Just transfer the new capacity to countries or regions with greater carbon capacity. In the second stage, chemical enterprises may face large-scale technological transformation of public works, and use green energy alternatives to reduce energy consumption, so as to reduce the tax costs related to carbon neutralization;
The third stage is the era of bio based materials and energy. Chemical products are closely related to people’s lives, and the demand will not disappear because of policies. However, under the goal of carbon neutralization, fossil based materials may face disruptive impact locally. Bio based materials are a possible alternative / supplement. With the decline of the cost of bio based materials, the rise of the cost of fossil based materials (the increase of carbon emission taxes), and the breakthrough of bio based materials of “non grain” raw materials, bio based materials are expected to become a new bottom material for global industry.
It is worth emphasizing that the above is the idea of industry evolution for 40 years. 3060 mainly affects the ceiling of long-term high energy consuming products or industrial development, and has little impact on the approved planning projects. In addition, a series of operable policies will evolve under the 3060 goal. With the implementation of specific policies and the breakthrough of new technologies (including synthetic biology, new energy storage technology, new nuclear power technology, new recycling technology, etc.), the three stages we understand may also be staggered.
The national development and Reform Commission issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policy measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation, and 38 measures were taken to implement the carbon peak in the energy field
On February 10, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the opinions on improving the institutional mechanisms and policy measures for green and low-carbon energy transformation (fgy [2022] No. 206), and took 38 specific measures to implement the carbon peak in the energy field in the notice of the action plan for carbon peak before 2030 issued by the State Council in October 2021.
This document is a detailed document in the field of energy in the “1 + n” series of documents. From improving the system and policy system to guide green energy consumption, establishing a new mechanism for green and low-carbon oriented energy development and utilization, improving the construction and operation mechanism of new power system, improving the clean and efficient development and utilization mechanism of fossil energy, improving the security and supply system for green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and establishing a scientific and technological innovation system to support green and low-carbon transformation of energy 38 specific measures were put forward in terms of establishing a fiscal and financial policy guarantee mechanism to support the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, promoting international cooperation in the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, and improving the governance mechanism related to green and low-carbon development of energy. The document points out that activities related to energy production and consumption are the main sources of carbon dioxide emissions. Vigorously promoting carbon emission reduction in the energy sector is an important measure to do a good job in carbon peak neutralization and accelerate the construction of a modern energy system.
\u3000\u30001. Put forward the overall goal. During the 14th Five Year Plan period, we will build a green and low-carbon energy transformation promotion mechanism led by the “dual control” of energy consumption and the target system of non fossil energy. By 2030, we will basically establish a complete basic system and policy system for green and low-carbon development of energy, and form an energy production and consumption pattern in which non fossil energy can basically meet the increment of energy demand, replace the stock of fossil energy on a large scale, and comprehensively enhance the ability of energy security.
\u3000\u30002. Strengthen strategic planning guidance and overall coordination. Strengthen the guidance and restraint of energy strategy and planning. Guided by the national energy strategy, strengthen the leading role of the national energy planning, and strengthen the coordination and mutual assistance among various energy varieties, upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and regions. All regions are encouraged to meet the national minimum proportion of renewable energy consumption and other indicators through regional cooperation or renewable energy power consumption trading. Establish a cross sectoral and cross regional coordination mechanism for energy security and development.
\u3000\u30003. Improve the green energy consumption system and policy system, and promote supply transformation with demand side constraints. Strengthen the management of binding indicators for reducing energy consumption intensity, effectively enhance the flexibility of total energy consumption management, exclude the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control, and strengthen the connection between the “double control” policy of energy consumption and the objectives and tasks of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. We will improve policies to support green energy consumption in industry, construction and transportation.
\u3000\u30004. Establish a new mechanism for the opening and utilization of energy. Promote the construction of an energy supply system dominated by clean and low-carbon energy. Focus on deserts, Gobi and desert areas, accelerate the construction of large-scale wind power and photovoltaic power generation bases, and support the construction, combination and development of new energy power. All regions give priority to the development and utilization of local clean and low-carbon energy resources according to the principle of proximity, actively introduce clean and low-carbon energy outside the region according to needs, and form an energy production and consumption pattern that gives priority to meeting the new energy demand through clean and low-carbon energy and gradually replaces the stock of fossil energy.
\u3000\u30005. The construction and operation mechanism of the new power system is more practical and feasible
First, optimize the operation of transmission network and power system, increase the amount of renewable energy transmitted by stock transmission channels as much as possible, clarify the minimum proportion index and conduct assessment. Second, improve the market mechanism to adapt to the new power system and promote the green and low-carbon development of power through marketization. Improve the power trading mechanism conducive to the priority utilization of renewable energy. Third, improve the construction and operation mechanism of flexible power supply. Fully implement the flexibility transformation of coal motor unit; Build natural gas “double peak shaving” power station according to local conditions; Actively strengthen the regulation capacity of conventional hydropower, accelerate the construction of pumped storage power stations, and explore the application of small and medium-sized pumped storage technology; Give full play to the regulating role of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) thermal power generation, and carry out research and demonstration of new energy storage projects such as energy storage in abandoned mine reconstruction. Fourth, improve the power demand response mechanism. Support user side adjustable resources such as user side energy storage, electric vehicle charging facilities and distributed generation, as well as load aggregators, virtual power plant operators and integrated energy service providers to participate in power market transactions and system operation regulation.
The implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version) was released, covering 17 major industries
On February 11, 2022, the national development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of ecological environment and the National Energy Administration issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version).
It is mentioned that for enterprises with energy efficiency below the benchmark level, especially the benchmark level, actively promote the advanced technology and equipment proposed in this implementation guide, the catalogue of green technology promotion, the catalogue of recommended industrial energy-saving technologies, the catalogue of “energy efficiency star” equipment products, and strengthen the optimization of energy system, utilization of waste heat and pressure, pollutant emission reduction Comprehensive utilization of solid waste and transformation of public and auxiliary facilities, improve the green level of production processes and technical equipment, improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization, and promote the formation of a strong Chinese market.
The implementation guidelines refer to 17 high energy consuming industries including oil refining, ethylene, p-xylene, modern coal chemical industry, synthetic ammonia, calcium carbide, caustic soda, soda ash, ammonium phosphate, yellow phosphorus, cement, flat glass, building and sanitary ceramics, iron and steel, coking, ferroalloy and non-ferrous metal smelting. The implementation guidelines of each industry are divided into three parts: basic situation, work direction and work objectives.
First, guide transformation and upgrading. For enterprises whose energy efficiency is below the benchmark level, especially the benchmark level, actively promote the advanced technology and equipment proposed in this implementation guide, the catalogue of green technology promotion, the catalogue of recommended industrial energy-saving technologies, the catalogue of “energy efficiency star” equipment products, and strengthen the optimization of energy system, the utilization of residual heat and pressure, the emission reduction of pollutants, the comprehensive utilization of solid waste and the transformation of public and auxiliary facilities, Improve the green level of production technology and technical equipment, improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization, and promote the formation of a strong Chinese market.
Second, strengthen technological research. Make full use of the innovative resources of institutions of higher learning, scientific research institutes, industry associations and other units to promote the tackling of green common key technologies, cutting-edge leading technologies and relevant facilities and equipment for energy conservation, pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy. Promote backbone enterprises whose energy efficiency has reached or approached the benchmark level to plan and build demonstration projects with advanced cutting-edge technology and equipment, and lead the high-quality development of the industry.
III. promoting agglomeration development. We will guide key enterprises to give full play to their advantages in capital, talents and technology, voluntarily carry out mergers and acquisitions in this field through the elimination of the best and the replacement of production capacity, focus on the planning and construction of large-scale and integrated production bases, improve the level of process equipment and energy utilization efficiency, and build a development pattern with reasonable structure, effective competition, standardization and order, It is not allowed to blindly expand production capacity and low-level redundant construction in the name of merger and reorganization.
IV. speed up the elimination of backward. Strictly implement relevant laws and regulations on energy conservation, environmental protection, quality and safety technology and policies such as the Guiding Catalogue for industrial structure adjustment, and eliminate backward processes, technologies and production devices that do not meet the requirements of green and low-carbon transformation and development in accordance with the law and regulations. For the production capacity whose energy efficiency is below the benchmark level and it is difficult to achieve above the benchmark level through transformation and upgrading within the specified time limit, accelerate its exit through market-oriented and legal means.
Industry maintenance:
[petrochemical sector]
Pure benzene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 828400 tons, 800000 tons less than last week.
Toluene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.3901 million tons, the same as last week.
Propylene: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 7.11 million tons, 630000 tons less than last week.
Butadiene: the total capacity under maintenance this week was 490000 tons, 257000 tons less than last week.
Isobutylene: there is no production capacity under maintenance this week, which is the same as last week.
Bisphenol A: there is no production capacity under maintenance this week, 40000 tons less than last week.
PX: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 8.615 million tons, 800000 tons less than last week.
PTA: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 24.77 million tons, an increase of 3.2 million tons over last week.
Acrylic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 240000 tons, 30000 tons less than last week.
Butyl acrylate: it is under maintenance this week, with a total capacity of 400000 tons, an increase of 80000 tons over last week.
Propylene oxide: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.51 million tons, the same as last week.
[coal chemical sector]
Ethylene glycol: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 9.088 million tons, 600000 tons less than last week.
Acetic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 6.81 million tons, the same as last week.
Acetic anhydride: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 310000 tons, the same as last week.
Adipic acid: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 915000 tons, the same as last week.
DMF: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 70000 tons, the same as last week.
[polyurethane sector]
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.67 million tons, the same as last week.
TDI: the total production capacity under maintenance this week was 2.237 million tons, the same as last week.
[chemical fiber sector]
Polyester chip: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 550000 tons, the same as last week.
Polyester bottle chip: the production capacity under maintenance this week is 3.55 million tons, 400000 tons less than last week.
Polyester staple fiber: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 2.95 million tons, an increase of 830000 tons over last week.
The production capacity of polyester filament was 14.19 million tons last week, an increase of 14.19 million tons this week.
Nylon slicing: there are 2 companies in maintenance this week, the same as last week.
[pesticide and fertilizer sector]
Synthetic ammonia: a total of 65 companies were under maintenance this week, the same as last week.
Multi dimensional tracking of key companies
\u3000\u3000[ Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) ]
Industry information:
According to the State Patent Office, Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) 0 new patents were published this week
Price information:
The average price of titanium dioxide (rutile, China) this week was 19700 yuan / ton, up 0.20% month on month, with a historical quantile of 72%; The price difference of rutile titanium dioxide this week was 17770 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 0.23% and a historical quantile of 84%.
\u3000\u3000[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ]
Industry information:
According to Baichuan Yingfu, the situation of MDI device has not changed this week and continues the situation of last week: Wanhua baoside, which is in shutdown due to force majeure, has resumed the operation of its 350000 T / a MDI device. In addition, the 400000 T / a MDI unit of Ningbo Wanhua phase I started shutdown and maintenance on November 27, and gradually recovered in the near future; Phase II 800000 T / a equipment will be shut down for maintenance on December 11, and the maintenance is expected to take 45 days.
MDI: the production capacity under maintenance this week was 1.67 million tons, the same as last week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, all manufacturers have no new maintenance plan this week.
According to the State Patent Office, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 0 new patents were published this week.
Price information:
The average price of polymerized MDI (East China) this week was 21550 yuan / ton, up 2.69% month on month, with a historical quantile of 39%; The average price of pure MDI (East China) this week was 22421 yuan / ton, up 3.49% month on month, with a historical quantile of 39%; The average price of soft foam polyether (East China) this week was 12133 yuan / ton, up 6.43% month on month, with a historical quantile of 34%; The average price of hard foam polyether (East China) this week was 11317 yuan / ton, up 2.48% month on month, with a historical quantile of 46%; The average price of propylene oxide (East China) this week was 11500 yuan / ton, up 4.27% month on month, with a historical quantile of 37%; The average price of butyl acrylate (East China) this week was 17130 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 17.65% and a historical quantile of 83%; The average price of MTBE (98%, China) this week was 5745 yuan / ton, down 1.63% month on month, with a historical quantile of 40%; The average price of PC (General Motors, China) this week was 22400 yuan / ton, up 0.04% month on month and 39% in the historical quantile.
