Energy storage:
1. Recently, the whole energy storage sector has been continuously adjusted, with a return of nearly 20% since the beginning of 2022. Our views are as follows: (1) the correction brought about the normal adjustment of the market style shift. The inverter and lithium battery sectors are in the valuation downward stage. At present, the valuation “anchor” of the energy storage sector is downward: in 2021, thanks to the acceleration of the establishment of the general direction of energy storage construction under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the valuation of the whole energy storage sector has risen rapidly to a higher level (pettm more than 100 times). Under the background of the market style shift of the Fed’s interest rate increase cycle, it is normal for the overvalued sector to have a certain correction. (2) The high growth trend of energy storage industry remains unchanged: energy storage is currently in a period of accelerated development, and the development of energy storage outside China has increased significantly. We predict that the growth rate of the energy storage industry will exceed 100% in 2022, and the global installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage is expected to be about 20-25 / 50 / 80gwh from 2021 to 2023. Compared with other sectors of Dianxin, energy storage is still the segment track with the fastest growth rate. If the energy storage data further exceeds expectations after the first quarterly report is released, the valuation “anchor” of energy storage is expected to rise. At present, the overall allocation value of the sector is gradually emerging. (3) At present, the development of new technologies such as iron chromium liquid flow battery has little impact on the energy storage route of lithium-ion battery represented by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . At present, the energy storage is mainly based on the short-term energy storage configuration of 1-2 hours. Compared with other new energy storage routes, the comprehensive cost of lithium-ion battery route is lower. Iron chromium liquid flow battery and all vanadium liquid flow battery have great development potential in the field of long-term energy storage.
2. Investment: Huawei’s energy storage system benefits most from the development of China’s energy storage field. We recommend Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , and pay attention to Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ; Ningde energy storage system, recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , pay attention to Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) ; In PCs field, it is recommended to Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , and pay attention to Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) .
Grid:
1. Since 2022, the whole market style has been biased towards the infrastructure sector, but we are concerned that there has been a certain correction in the new infrastructure sector of power grid. Why? We believe that from November to December 2021, the market’s expectation of power grid investment is high, which gives the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. The current market’s preference for the infrastructure sector is more due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hikes and China’s steady growth. The style is more inclined to the infrastructure sector with undervalued value. As a result, the rise of traditional infrastructure and the correction of new infrastructure have emerged. At present, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid is gradually callback. We believe that corresponding to the performance in 2022, 15-25 times PE is a relatively reasonable allocation range.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
