[market performance] from February 7 to February 11, the CSI 300 index closed at 4601.40 points, down 0.71% in one week and 6.86% year to date; The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3462.95, up 0.97% in one week and down 4.86% year to date. Among the Shenwan level industries, coal, social services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sectors performed better. The weekly growth rate of the transportation industry was 2.87%, ranking 12th; Since the beginning of the year, the transportation industry has increased by 2.40%, ranking sixth; In terms of molecular industries, the top three performing industries in the transportation industry are public transportation (+ 1.29%), railway transportation (+ 0.43%) and Airport (- 0.11%).
[key information] on the first 20 days of the Spring Festival (January 17 to February 5), the average daily number of flights performed by mainland routes was about 9112, an increase of 40.30% over the same period in 2021 and a decrease of 24.98% over the same period in 2019 (civil aviation resources network).
[Key announcement] 1) Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) : the company released the production and operation data express in January 2022, with 32000 take-off and landing sorties, a year-on-year increase of 0.25%; The passenger throughput was 3.011 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of – 7.3%; Cargo and mail throughput was 187000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. 2) Daqin Railway Co.Ltd(601006) : in January 2022, the company’s core operating asset Daqin line completed 34.06 million tons of cargo transportation, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%; The average daily traffic volume is 1099000 tons. The average daily operation of Heavy Trains on Daqin line is 72.9, including 52.8 20000 ton trains.
[views of this week]
By the end of the Spring Festival holiday in 2022, the national passenger volume has increased by about 43% year-on-year in 2021, but it is still lower than the level in the same period in 2019. The Spring Festival transportation in 2022 started on January 17 (the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month) and ended on February 7 (the seventh day of the first lunar month). According to the press conference held by the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, a total of 539 million passengers were sent across the country, an increase of about 42.8% over the same period in 2021, less than 40% of the passenger flow in the same period in 2019 before the outbreak.
Baidu migration index shows that the level of migration activities during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 is close to the trend before the epidemic. During the Spring Festival in 2020, the nationwide epidemic control began, and Baidu migration index plunged from 412.614 ~ 621.211 before the festival to 153.610 ~ 287.424; Since then, for the purpose of epidemic prevention and control, the government has taken control measures such as off peak travel during the Spring Festival transportation in 2021 and 2022. The baidu migration index level from the Spring Festival transportation in 2021 to the end of the holiday (179.668 ~ 465.404) is significantly lower than that in the same period in 2019 (342.612 ~ 726.212); However, the baidu migration index in the same period in 2022 is between 262.57 and 737.33, and the overall trend is similar to that in 2019.
The passenger volume of Spring Festival transportation in 2022 is less affected by factors such as the spread of the epidemic, and the annual passenger volume may usher in recovery. Since 2020, the global covid-19 epidemic has not been completely solved, and its impact on economic activities will continue. The epidemic prevention and control work during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 is more arduous than that in 2021, but the passenger volume does not decrease but increases. At the end of 2021, there was a more infectious case of Omicron covid-19 virus in China, and the Beijing Winter Olympic Games will be held in February 2022. The epidemic prevention and control requirements during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 are more and higher. In addition, the confirmed covid-19 cases in China during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 were higher than the same period in 2021; From the 17th day of the twelfth lunar month to the 7th day of the first lunar month in 2021, the number of newly confirmed cases in China showed a downward trend, and there were almost no newly confirmed cases in China during the Spring Festival holiday; However, since the beginning of the Spring Festival transportation in 2022, the number of new confirmed cases in China has fluctuated continuously and reached a small peak on the last day of the holiday. The year-on-year increase in the passenger volume of the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 is due to the gradual decline of the impact of covid-19 epidemic on China’s economy since the second half of 2020 and the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control management level during the Spring Festival transportation in China. Although it is impossible to rule out the sporadic spread of the epidemic in China and small-scale outbreaks of overseas epidemics, it is less likely that the covid-19 epidemic will have a major negative impact on the economy under the combined effect of the continuous breakthrough of covid-19 specific drugs, the continuous improvement of the amount of vaccination and the improvement of the control capacity of various countries, The interaction between the global economy and covid-19 epidemic will enter a new normal.
Investment advice
With the gradual weakening of the impact of covid-19 epidemic on economic activities, the global economic recovery is expected to continue, the passenger volume in 2022 is expected to rise, and the transportation sector is expected to benefit. The relevant targets include Air China Limited(601111) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) , China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited(600115) .
Risk tips
Fluctuation of crude oil price and exchange rate; Aggravation of epidemic disturbance; Downstream demand was lower than expected.
