Event:
According to the industry statistics of China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturing enterprises included in the statistics in January 2022 sold 15607 sets of various mining machinery products, a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. Among them, 8282 units were sold in the Chinese market, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%; The export sales volume was 7325 units, with a year-on-year increase of 104.9%.
In January, the decline of excavators narrowed, China’s sales volume was sluggish, and exports maintained a high growth
In January 2022, the sales volume of excavators was 15607 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 20.4%. The growth rate of sales volume was narrower than that in December 2021 (- 23.76%), which was also the downward trend of sales growth for two consecutive months. Among them, China’s sales volume in January was 8282 units, a year-on-year decrease of 48.3%, which is still in a depressed state. In January, the export sales volume was 7325 units, with a year-on-year increase of 104.9%, maintaining a high growth. The export sales volume in January accounted for 46.93% of the sales volume in the current month, accounting for almost half of the country. The growth of excavator export demand in 2022 is expected to partially hedge the decline of Chinese demand.
The steady growth policy continues to increase, and the infrastructure promotes the demand for construction machinery, which is expected to improve marginally
In December, there were 25 words “stable” in the whole article of the central economic work conference, which showed a strong demand for stable growth and emphasized the appropriate advance of infrastructure investment. In order to do a good job in the issuance of special bonds next year, maintain steady investment growth and promote economic operation within a reasonable range, the national development and Reform Commission recently issued a notice, proposing four requirements: timely implement the amount of special bonds to specific projects, accelerate the preliminary work of special bond projects, do a good job in the weekly scheduling of special bond projects, and strengthen the construction of special bond projects, To promote a significant increase in physical workload in the first quarter and the first half of this year.
During the Spring Festival, the national development and Reform Commission once again issued a document saying that it is necessary to appropriately move the policy force point forward, make early arrangements, start early and achieve early results, and speed up the introduction of a series of policies and measures to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand. We will appropriately advance infrastructure investment, accelerate the promotion of 102 major engineering projects in the 14th five year plan, implement the special bonds issued by local governments in the fourth quarter of last year into specific projects as soon as possible, pay close attention to the amount issued, and strive to form more physical workload in the first quarter. During the Spring Festival, the director of the National Bureau of Statistics said that we should carefully introduce policies with contraction effect, strengthen the coordination and linkage of fiscal policy and monetary policy, and organically combine cross cyclical and counter cyclical regulation.
We believe that the steady growth is becoming stronger and stronger, the implementation and strength of various steady growth measures are expected to be significantly increased, the demand release rhythm of the construction machinery industry is expected to be advanced, and the demand is expected to be marginal improved.
In January, the social finance data exceeded expectations, the credit inclined to enterprises obviously, and the infrastructure investment is expected to go well, which is good for construction machinery
In January, RMB loans increased by 3.98 trillion yuan, an increase of 394.4 billion yuan year-on-year; The scale of social financing was 6.17 trillion yuan, an increase of 984.2 billion yuan year-on-year. The stock of social finance was 320.1 trillion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month. In January, the new loans of the enterprise sector increased by 3.36 trillion yuan, an increase of 810 billion yuan year-on-year, but the residential sector increased by only 0.84 trillion yuan, a decrease of 427 billion yuan year-on-year. Compared with the marginal change of last month, the credit demand of enterprises is significantly higher than that of residents, and the credit investment in the real economy is gradually increased, which is conducive to the stability of the real economy. With the support of policies, social financing and the issuance of new special bonds have made great efforts to stabilize growth. It is expected that the data of infrastructure investment this year is expected to be good, which will directly drive the stabilization and recovery of the demand for construction machinery.
We believe that the demand for construction machinery is expected to improve marginally this year. The share prices and valuations of Listed Companies in relevant industrial chains are low. After a long-term in-depth adjustment last year, with the marginal improvement of fundamentals, it is expected to usher in investment opportunities of oversold rebound. It is suggested to pay attention to the three main engine plants Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) , Xcmg Construction Machinery Co.Ltd(000425) of construction machinery and the listed companies Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Yantai Eddie Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(603638) of core parts, as well as the two leading forklift companies Hangcha Group Co.Ltd(603298) , Anhui Heli Co.Ltd(600761) , and the leader of aerial work platform Zhejiang Dingli Machinery Co.Ltd(603338) .
Risk tips: 1: the growth rate of infrastructure and real estate investment is lower than expected; 2: Export demand is lower than expected; 3: Industry competition intensifies; 4: Raw material prices continued to rise.
