Semiconductor: the growth rate of semiconductor sales will slow down in the next five years, and the mitigation time of car core is from the second half of 2022 to 2023
Icinsights: from 2021 to 2026, the global semiconductor sales CAGR is expected to reach 7.1%, and the growth rate in the fields of sensors and Optoelectronics is among the top. According to icinsights, the global semiconductor market sales CAGR in 2016-2021 was as high as 11%. However, looking back on the development history of semiconductor, it is not difficult to find that, as a cyclical industry, the current double-digit growth rate of semiconductor industry is difficult to maintain for a long time. Therefore, icinsights gives a CAGR expectation of 7.1% for the sales of the semiconductor industry from 2021 to 2026. In terms of market segments, the sensor market is currently small, but it will benefit from the demand for cars, mobile phones, mobile and wearable devices in the next few years. The growth rate is expected to reach 12.3% from 2021 to 2026, leading all subdivided products. The growth rate of all integrated circuits is expected to reach 6.9% from 2021 to 2026, with logic circuits leading with a growth rate of 7.9%, mainly driven by the high demand for automotive, industrial and other applications.
The capacity shortage of 8-inch wafers may continue until the second half of next year. According to trendforce, the CAGR of the world’s top ten wafer foundry is expected to reach about 10% from 2020 to 2025. Most wafer factories mainly expand the production capacity of 12 inches, and the CAGR reaches 13.2%. Due to the difficulties in obtaining equipment and the low cost effect of expanding production, most wafer factories only expand production slightly by means of capacity optimization, and the CAGR is only 3.3%. However, PMIC and power discrete devices, the main products of 8-inch wafers on the demand side, are driven by the demand of downstream new energy vehicles and 5g, resulting in a serious shortage of supply. Although some products are currently transforming from 8-inch to 12 inch wafers, trendforce predicts that the capacity of 8-inch wafers will be alleviated or will wait until the second half of 2023 to 2024.
The mitigation time of car core is from the second half of 2022 to 2023. Since the second half of 2020, the shortage of automotive chips has continued for nearly one and a half years. GM, Ford, Volkswagen and other auto companies have repeatedly announced plans to shut down or reduce production. According to alixpartners, in 2021, the global auto industry will suffer a loss of US $210 billion due to lack of core, and the output of cars will drop by 7.7 million. At the same time, with the increase of automobile functions and the rise of new energy vehicles, the consumption of automobile chips continues to increase. Icinsights data show that global auto chip shipments increased by 30% annually in 2021, an increase of 27% compared with the level before the epidemic in 2019. For when automotive chips will be alleviated, DIGITIMES said that vehicle manufacturers and chip manufacturers put forward different expectations. The automakers represented by general motors and Ford predict that the automotive chip will ease in the second half of 2022. In 2022, although the production of chips manufactured by enzhiling and Philips is still in short supply, it is still difficult to improve.
We believe that for the global semiconductor market, although the growth rate in the next few years is lower than that in the past few years, it will continue to grow as a whole. At the same time, some emerging markets, including sensors, are still in a period of rapid expansion. In the next few years, they may benefit from the development boom of automotive electronics and other industries, and the scale of the industry will achieve rapid growth. For the shortage of automotive chips, due to the limitations of the capacity expansion of 8-inch wafers used in a large number of automotive chips and the rapid rise in chip demand caused by the trend of automotive intelligence and electrification, it is still difficult to restore the balance between supply and demand in a short time. It is necessary to wait until the gradual implementation of new production capacity and the product import from 8-inch wafer to 12 inch wafer. The shortage of automotive chips, which has lasted for one and a half years, may continue until 2022. In the context of the global shortage of automotive chips, vehicle enterprises led by Chinese automobile manufacturers began to cooperate with Chinese chip manufacturers. Under the background of the current lack of core and domestic substitution, China, as the world’s largest automobile market, is expected to usher in rapid development opportunities in the future with the process of high-end products.
Risk tips
The downstream demand of semiconductor is lower than expected, and the prosperity of the industry is lower than expected.
Related subject matter
Semiconductor design: [ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) ] [ Allwinnertech Technology Co.Ltd(300458) ] [ Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) ] [ Sg Micro Corp(300661) ] [ Maxscend Microelectronics Company Limited(300782) ]; Wafer Foundry: [ Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation(688981) ] [Huahong semiconductor]; Semiconductor material: [ Red Avenue New Materials Group Co.Ltd(603650) ] [Jingrui Co., Ltd.]; Power semiconductor: [ Wingtech Technology Co.Ltd(600745) ] [ China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) ] [ Hangzhou Silan Microelectronics Co.Ltd(600460) ] [ Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) ] [ Wuxi Nce Power Co.Ltd(605111) ]
Consumer electronics: [ Goertek Inc(002241) ] [ Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) ] [ Avary Holding (Shenzhen) Co.Limited(002938) ] [ Luxshare Precision Industry Co.Ltd(002475) ]; Smartphone: [Xiaomi group]
Folding screen: [ Jiangsu Gian Technology Co.Ltd(300709) ] [ Wuhu Token Sciences Co.Ltd(300088) ]
