Key investment points
Constant catalysis at the bottom of valuation, optimistic about CXO Market
On February 11, Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) announced that it had signed a new order of 681 million US dollars with Pfizer. According to the order volume, we expect that it may be a cdmo order related to Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drugs. On February 12, CDE's official website announced the conditional approval of the import registration of Pfizer's covid-19 virus treatment drug nimatovir tablets / ritonavir tablets combined packaging (i.e. paxlovid). Covid-19 treatment drugs and cdmo supply chain continued to usher in heavy benefits. In addition, Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) announced on February 13 that 250-500 million shares of the company will be repurchased at no more than 120.00 yuan / share for the later implementation of A-share equity incentive plan or A-share employee stock ownership plan.
From 2021 to 2022, the stock price of CXO sector fluctuated greatly: it was mainly affected by the following factors. 1) The list of anti-cancer drug regulatory entities in the United States (the list of anti-cancer drugs and the list of anti-cancer drug regulatory policies in the United States). 2) Investment and financing: the monthly fluctuation is large, and Hong Kong stocks break. It is worried that the deterioration of investment and financing will lead to the decline of new orders signed by CXO. Under the above disturbance, the bottom of CXO valuation gradually appears. At present, the CXO sector is generally at the bottom of historical valuation. Under the prospect of continuous external catalysis, continuous improvement of internal operation quality and recognition of overseas key customers, we are optimistic about the CXO market.
Optimistic about the possibility that Pfizer cdmo supply chain continues to exceed expectations
The resumption of 2021q4 Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) successively announced that the large-scale orders of cdmo with large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises (which we expect to be related to Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drugs) reached about US $900 million and US $214 million respectively. This Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) further added US $681 million, which also demonstrated the local cdmo production capacity The quality system and delivery efficiency are highly recognized in the supply chain system of large overseas pharmaceutical enterprises. We are optimistic about the possibility of undertaking more cdmo orders for other overseas innovative drug projects after the local cdmo supply capacity is recognized by overseas major customers, and the possibility that the performance of the local cdmo supply chain continues to exceed expectations under the continuous and ineffective control of the epidemic. Considering that the current valuation of CXO enterprises has fallen back to the low level in 2019 and the uncertainty of performance, it is recommended to focus on Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
Importance should be attached to the autonomy of anti epidemic drugs
Although Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drugs have been listed conditionally in China, considering the high overseas pricing (it is speculated that the overseas treatment course is priced at $500 + according to the amount and volume of overseas government procurement), its Chinese pricing may still remain high. At present, China has established a strong prevention and control system. Considering that the independent and controllable drug treatment scheme of covid-19 treatment in China has made remarkable progress, the direction of specific drugs of covid-19 in China deserves special attention. Focus on: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , etc. Reference report: normalization of epidemic prevention and drug autonomy - covid-19 special topic of therapeutic drugs 20220124.
Investment advice
Key recommendation: it is expected to continue to benefit from Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) of Pfizer covid-19 therapeutic drug cdmo industrial chain. Clinical cro leader Hangzhou Tigermed Consulting Co.Ltd(300347) actively repurchase at the bottom of valuation. The valuation is cost-effective. CXO leaders Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Shanghai Medicilon Inc(688202) , Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , etc.
Focus on: independent and controllable covid-19 treatment drug innovative drug enterprises Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Guangdong Zhongsheng Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002317) , Fujian Cosunter Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300436) , Geli pharmaceutical, etc., and pay attention to Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) in the treatment direction of traditional Chinese medicine covid-19.
Risk tips
The volatility risk of China's drug trial policy, the risk of the fluctuation of the investment and financing cycle of the primary market, the risk that the expansion of new business is less than expected, exchange risk, competition risk and political risk.
