Core view
With the release of the tourism development plan during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the favorable policies and the improvement of the epidemic situation are the starting point for the overall recovery of the industry. From the perspective of the 14th five year plan, the state attaches great importance to the development of China’s tourism industry. At the same time, on the premise that the international epidemic situation is effectively controlled, the entry-exit may be gradually liberalized and the entry-exit tourism will gradually recover. Under the influence of the epidemic, the development of tourism service industry once fell into a trough. With the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, consumer travel confidence is expected to recover steadily under the support of policies, and the starting point of the general trend of industry recovery is coming. Tourism related industries will show a more brilliant performance driven by the recovery of industry prosperity and the continuous improvement of their own product and brand strength.
Spring Festival travel shows the recovery of the recovery process of tourism. New trends such as peripheral travel, ice and snow travel and parent-child travel constitute the current mainstream travel forms. According to the calculation of the data center of the Ministry of culture and tourism, during the golden week of the Spring Festival in 2022, 251 million people traveled in China, realizing China’s tourism revenue of 289.198 billion yuan. After the repeated impact of the epidemic in the second half of 2021, the recovery process of tourism was once blocked, and the recovery rhythm of the Spring Festival in 2022 began to pick up gradually. Compared with medium and long-distance tourism, the planning of peripheral tourism is more flexible. Deep experience projects and diversified and innovative playing methods are favored by young consumers, which has become a new trend of tourism. The ice and snow fever brought by the Beijing Winter Olympics “ignited” the Spring Festival, the demand for ice and snow sports is increasing, and ice and snow tourism has become a new bright spot in the industry. In the first winter vacation after the “double reduction”, parent-child travel has become an effective way to enhance parent-child companionship and close parent-child relations. The parent-child travel market is also growing rapidly with the expansion of demand, and has great potential for development in the future.
The current valuation level of the tourism sector is relatively low. In the future, with the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, there is sufficient room for valuation to rise. The Spring Festival travel data reflects the rising willingness of people to travel and travel. At present, due to the repeated epidemic in the early stage, the tourism industry has been at a relatively low valuation. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation, the social service and tourism sectors are expected to hit the bottom and rise, and the valuation has a broad space to rise in the future.
Investment advice
The Spring Festival and Winter Olympics can be regarded as the starting point for the recovery of tourism, tourism retail and other industries. In the future, with the gradual improvement of the epidemic situation, the tourist and travel traffic is expected to continue to rise, and the overall recovery of corresponding industries is expected to show an accelerated trend. We believe that the lowest point of the industry has passed. At present, it may be regarded as the starting point of the overall recovery of the tourism industry, and the prosperity of the industry will rebound in the future. Related targets of the tourism industry include: Songcheng Performance Development Co.Ltd(300144) , Jiangsu Tianmu Lake Tourism Co.Ltd(603136) .
Risk tips
Tip 1: repeated epidemic impact;
Tip 2: macroeconomic fluctuations;
Tip 3: policy supervision risk.
