\u3000\u3000 Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) (600048)
Event: the company issued the operation announcement in January 2022. In January, the sales area was 1857600 square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 11.73%; The sales amount reached 28.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.29%.
Single month sales fell by double digits year-on-year, and the average sales price rose slightly month on month
The monthly sales amount of the company in January 2022 was 28.302 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.29% and a month-on-month decrease of 22.90% compared with December last year; The sales area was 1857600 square meters, a decrease of 11.73% year-on-year in January last year and 24.09% month on month in December last year; The average sales price was 15235.79 yuan / m2, and the average monthly sales price in January last year was 20467.09 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 25.56%, an increase of 1.57% compared with the average sales price of 15000.82 yuan / m2 in December last year, a decrease of 5.07% compared with the cumulative average sales price of 16049.38 yuan / m2 last year. Affected by last year's high base, Spring Festival holidays and the overall environment, the company's monthly sales fell more year-on-year, but the average sales price rose slightly month on month.
Land acquisition is mainly in East China, and the increase of cooperative land acquisition leads to the decline of equity proportion
The company added 5 plots in January 2022. From the perspective of regional distribution, East China: South China = 3:2; From the perspective of urban energy level, second tier cities: third tier cities and below = 3:2; Among them, the new plots in East China are located in second tier cities, and the new plots in South China are located in Hainan Province. The urban energy levels are third tier and fifth tier respectively. From the perspective of equity ratio, the land acquisition ratio of 100% equity: non 100% equity is 1:4. In January, the newly added projects covered an area of 352900 square meters, and the newly planned construction area was 896200 square meters, of which the newly added construction area in second tier cities accounted for 60.38%, and the newly added construction area in third tier cities and low-energy cities below accounted for 39.62%; Proportion of new construction area in East China: the proportion of new construction area in South China is also 60.38%: 39.62%. This proportion is lower than the proportion of second tier cities: third tier and below cities = 86.85%: 13.15% of high-energy cities in the previous month; In terms of regional distribution, in January, East China: South China = 60.38%: 39.62%. In January last year, East China: Central China: South China: North China = 54.48%: 20.62%: 14.17%: 10.73%. In January, the region was more concentrated. In terms of equity ratio, the corresponding equity land price of land acquisition in January was 7.679 billion yuan, and the total land price was 14.712 billion yuan. The corresponding equity ratio was 52.19%, which was much lower than the equity ratio of 79.58% last month, which was related to the increase of cooperative land acquisition in January.
The intensity of land acquisition decreased significantly month on month, and the land sales increased more month on month
According to the calculation of equity land price, the land acquisition strength of the company in January 2022 was 27.13%, which decreased significantly compared with 60.87% in a single month last month. In terms of floor price, the floor price of new projects in January 2022 was 16416.48 yuan / m2, an increase of 88.57% over 8705.81 yuan / m2 last month, mainly related to the fact that replenishment was concentrated in high-energy cities in East China in January. The land sales ratio in January was 107.75%, which was much higher than 58.04% in the previous month.
Investment suggestion: affected by the high base of last year, the Spring Festival holiday and the overall environment, the sales price of the company in the first month of the year fell year-on-year, but the average sales price increased slightly month on month. At the same time, the replenishment is mainly in high-energy cities in East China. Considering that the gross profit margin of the industry may decline and the settlement will slow down in the future, we lowered the company's net profit from 2021 to 2022 from 29.977 billion yuan and 33.082 billion yuan to 27.576 billion yuan and 30.174 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS from 2.5 and 2.76 yuan / share to 2.30 and 2.52 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating
Risk warning: the house price falls sharply, the sales is less than expected, the macro economy is less than expected, and the data of 2021 is the preliminary accounting. The specific data shall be subject to the formal annual report. The sales data may be different from the data disclosed in the regular report, and the relevant data shall be subject to the company's regular report
