\u3000\u3000 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) (002460)
Investment logic
Lithium industry is the leader, and its business runs through the whole industrial chain
Upstream: global diversified resource layout. The company directly or indirectly owns 15 high-quality lithium resources worldwide. At present, the core of the resource side lies in mountmarion mine and cauchariolaroz salt lake. The increment in 23 years and beyond comes from Sonora lithium clay and goulamina mine in Mali.
Midstream: capacity increase and continuous expansion. Current annual production capacity: 43000 tons of battery grade lithium carbonate, 81000 tons of battery grade lithium hydroxide and 2000 tons of metal lithium. According to the plan, the total capacity of equity / underwriting lithium products in 25 years is expected to reach more than 200000 tons, double the current growth. It is estimated that the company's lithium product output converted into LCE in 21-23 years will be 98500 tons, 11100 tons and 131800 tons respectively.
Downstream: Lithium Battery + battery recycling business grew steadily. The company's lithium battery business is mainly distributed in the fields of consumer batteries (with a capacity of 30 million / year), TWS batteries (with a capacity of 300000 / day), power / energy storage batteries (with a capacity of 6Gw) and solid-state batteries (first and second generation). The decommissioned battery recycling business has a recycling capacity of 34000 tons, equivalent to about 4000-5000 tons of LCE.
Performance elasticity and growth in lithium business cycle
Supply and demand remained tight, and the industry maintained a high boom. It is estimated that the lithium supply gap in 22-24 years will be 23000 tons, 15000 tons and 21000 tons respectively. The tight balance within three years has high certainty, and the price remains high. It is estimated that the average price in 22-23 years will be 250000-300000 yuan / ton.
The self-sufficiency rate has increased year by year, and the performance elasticity + growth can be expected. The company's annual gross profit of lithium resources is expected to increase by RMB 115300-215300 yuan, while the company's gross profit of lithium resources is expected to increase by RMB 115300-215300 yuan, and the annual gross profit of lithium resources is expected to increase by RMB 23000-215300 yuan. The large-scale production capacity will lead to the continuous improvement of self-sufficiency rate. It is estimated that the resource self-sufficiency rate of the company in 21-23 years will be 38%, 52% and 60% respectively. In 25 years, the company's lithium product capacity is expected to exceed 200000 tons, and the growth can be expected.
Profit forecast & investment suggestions
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years will be 5.180 billion yuan, 10.491 billion yuan and 12.6 billion yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS will be 3.61 yuan, 7.3 yuan and 8.77 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 40 times, 20 times and 16 times respectively. In order to realize the performance and growth during the business cycle, the leading companies are conservatively valued at 20 times in 23 years, corresponding to the market value of about 240 billion yuan and the target price of 174 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of lithium price trend in the later stage increases; The progress of production capacity launch is less than expected, and the risk of shareholders' shareholding reduction.
