\u3000\u3000 Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (002088)
Event: on February 11, the national development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of industry and information technology, the Ministry of ecological environment and the national energy administration, issued the implementation guide for the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas of high energy consuming industries (2022 version), which aims to promote the transformation and upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in key areas. The important direction is to "guide transformation and upgrading", strengthen energy system optimization, waste heat and pressure utilization, pollutant emission reduction, comprehensive utilization of solid waste and transformation of public and auxiliary facilities, improve the green level of production processes and technical equipment, and improve the efficiency of resource and energy utilization.
Comments:
The upgrading of energy conservation and carbon reduction in high energy consuming industries may promote the application of thermal insulation materials: according to the implementation guidelines of energy conservation and carbon reduction upgrading in various industries, the energy conservation transformation of industrial equipment and the application of energy-saving materials will be the main work direction, and the application of kiln and pipeline thermal insulation materials will be an important part. Specific industry requirements are as follows:
Ethylene: high quality thermal insulation materials such as plastic refractory lining, ceramic fiber lining and high-temperature thermal insulation paint are used to reduce heat loss. Electrolytic aluminum: focus on promoting the energy-saving transformation of the new type of stable current and thermal insulation aluminum electrolytic cell. Cement: promote the use of modular energy-saving or multi-layer composite kiln liner, aerogel, kiln experts to optimize the intelligent control system and other technologies. Glass: adopt technologies such as full insulation of glass furnace and infrared high radiation energy-saving coating for furnace. Ceramics: promote energy-saving kilns and high-efficiency firing technology. Synthetic ammonia: heat insulation and cold insulation materials with good performance are used to strengthen the insulation of equipment and pipelines. Calcium carbide: promote the use of efficient thermal insulation materials for calcium carbide furnace, effectively reduce the heat loss of calcium carbide furnace body and reduce the power consumption of electric furnace. Ammonium phosphate: heat insulation materials with good performance are used to strengthen the insulation of equipment and pipelines.
The demand expansion logic of ceramic fiber is still deducting, and the performance ceiling is expected to rise continuously: ceramic fiber, as an important thermal insulation material for industrial use, will benefit from the promotion of national energy conservation and carbon reduction policies, and the market space of the industry will continue to expand. Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) is also focusing on the development and promotion of its products, such as energy-saving furnace lining and carbon reduction technology system. It is not confined to the petrochemical field with traditional advantages, and is also increasing its layout in the steel, nonferrous metals and fire prevention markets. The company is accelerating the pace of capacity expansion. Under the background of demand expansion, the certainty of sales growth has been greatly improved.
Product competitive advantage supports the deterministic growth of performance: the company's early production capacity has been fully released in 2021. It is true that it has benefited from the withdrawal of some small and medium-sized production capacity, but it still relies on the reform of marketing system and the transformation of management system to enlarge its competitive advantage on the basis of leading cost advantage. We believe that the company's competitiveness and growth logic will not change in 2022. With capacity expansion, the performance will achieve steady growth.
Profit forecast and valuation rating: the policy of energy conservation and carbon reduction is continuously promoted, and the industry demand is expected to continue to expand, opening the ceiling of the company's performance. The reform of the company's marketing system has promoted the full release of production capacity. Now it has accelerated into the production capacity expansion cycle, and the certainty of performance growth is strong. We maintained the company's net profit of 543 million yuan, 659 million yuan and 791 million yuan for 21-23 years, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of industry demand is less than expected; The increase of the company's market share is less than expected; New business expansion is less than expected; The recovery of rock wool business was less than expected; The proportion of cash dividends decreased significantly.
