\u3000\u3000 Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) (001215)
Quick frozen rice noodle industry: old track, new opportunities. 1) The market scale has expanded steadily, and the retail end accounts for a high proportion. According to the statistics of Huajing Industry Research Institute, from 2015 to 2019, the market scale of China's quick-frozen rice noodle food increased from 54.2 billion yuan to 67.7 billion yuan, and the CAGR was 5.72%. At present, the proportion of sales of quick-frozen rice noodle food at the C end is significantly higher than that at the B end. 2) Compared with Japan, it is the general trend to transfer the sales channel to the b-end. China is now in the development stage of quick-frozen food, which can be compared with Japan in the 1970s-1980s. Affected by factors such as the rate of foreign food conversion and the rising cost of catering, the quick-frozen rice noodle market is expected to launch a large-scale market from the b-end.
Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) : the b-end leader of quick-frozen rice flour products, with leading product / Channel / supply chain capacity. 1) Strong R & D capability and profound moat: the company has a deep understanding of catering needs. Through years of R & D and accumulation, it has achieved leading advantages in fried dough sticks, sesame balls and egg tart skins; 2) Direct distribution goes hand in hand with obvious first mover advantage: the company has cultivated a number of well-known catering customers, complete channel network and excellent customization ability. The head customers lead the consumption trend to ensure that the company's products are in a leading position. Relying on the recognition of big brands by users, the company can quickly expand small and medium-sized B customers at low cost; 3) Mature model and excellent quality control: the company learns from KFC's supply chain system and has strong quality control ability. In addition, the company expects the production capacity to reach 196000 tons in 2025, and the production capacity bottleneck can be effectively alleviated; 4) Clear ownership structure and rich team experience: the company is operated by an experienced management team. In November 2021, the company launched a restricted stock incentive plan. This incentive will effectively stimulate the vitality of the team and bind the management team in depth. 5) Good business results in high roe: the catering end of quick-frozen rice flour products does not need high supermarket sales, publicity and other expenses. Although the gross profit margin is slightly lower than that of the consumer end, its sales expense rate is low, and high turnover and high net profit margin bring high roe.
Future outlook: both certainty and growth. 1) Certainty: high viscosity, good track. It is the general trend for industrialized rice flour products to replace handmade products. Relying on the lighthouse effect of big brands and excellent R & D ability, on the basis of existing large single products and high-quality customer base, the company continues to add SKUs around the consumption scenario, and promotes 20% - 30% of new products to all channels every year to consolidate the advantages of products. 2) Growth: wide track and high growth rate. The development stage of China's quick-frozen food industry is equivalent to that of Japan in the early 1970s, with a growth period of 10-20 years. Zhengzhou Qianweiyangchu Food Co.Ltd(001215) it mainly focuses on quick-frozen rice flour products, and develops baking and cuisine products. The ceiling of the industry is high, and the new and old categories of the company make great revenue together. It is expected to maintain the leading position in the field of rice flour products and rebuild three to five core categories exceeding 100 million yuan among the existing products.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: the fast-frozen rice noodle catering market has high growth, the company's R & D and channel capabilities are outstanding, and the company's business is expected to continue to develop. It is predicted that the company's revenue in 2021-23 will be 1.285/1.658/2.1 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 93 / 1.18/158 million yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.07/1.36/1.82 yuan, and the current share price will be 46 / 36 / 27 times that of PE. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: food safety risk, repeated epidemic risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, key customer risk, sub new stock price fluctuation risk.
